000 AGXX40 KNHC 030611 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 AM EST FRI MAR 03 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E GULF EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 26N85W. WHILE GENERATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF...THE TROUGH HAS MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE WIND FIELD WITH MANY OF THE NEARBY BUOYS AND SHIP OBS SHOWING LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N GULF AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY AND EXTEND FROM FROM TAMPA BAY TO S TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON THEN BECOME DIFFUSE FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY PRODUCE MODERATE NLY WINDS FRI AND SAT. WINDS SUBSIDE OVER THE N WATERS SUN AND MON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E TUE...MODERATE TO STRONG SLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WINDS/SEAS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EXPECTED CONDITIONS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...15 TO 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND 10 TO 15 KT ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHIP OBS STILL SHOWING SOME SWELL OVER THE AREA SO WILL KEEP APPROPRIATE WORDING THROUGH FIRST 2 PERIODS. WINDS/SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN MON AND TUE AS THE ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND LOWER PRES DEVELOPS OVER COLOMBIA. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT NIGHT BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS PASS TO THE N OF THE AREA. STILL...THE FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE N WATERS SUN AND MON AND BRING IN SOME NLY SWELL OVER THE NW PART. FRONT DISSIPATES BY TUE BUT RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OVER N PART. SW N ATLANTIC... RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLC ALONG 24N EARLY TODAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY THIS AFTERNOON TO A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUN EXITING THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING STRONG SLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POST-FRONTAL NLY WINDS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE FRI BUT MAY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NE PART SAT AS THE FRONT GETS REINFORCED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD FROM THE E UNITED STATES. WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT OVER OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME NE PART LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF MON AND TUE AS NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST LATE MON AND EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY LATE TUE. LATEST GFS AND CMC RUNS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THIS EVENT IS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...PREFER TO WAIT ON INTRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS/WORDING. INSTEAD...WILL WALK THE FORECAST UP SLOWLY AND MONITOR SUBSEQUENT RUNS. FOR NOW...20-30 KT IN ADVANCE AND 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT LOOKS LIKE BEST BET. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RHOME