000 AGXX40 KNHC 020602 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 AM EST THU MAR 02 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N86W TO THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND GIVE WAY TO THEN NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES INTO THE N GULF COAST LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM W-CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 25N90W TO S TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK PRODUCING WINDS TO 15 OR PERHAPS 20 KT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRI THROUGH SUN. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH...BUT NOT MOVE INTO...THE N GULF MON. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME N PART OF AREA WHERE THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE N GULF WATERS LOOKS TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. STILL...MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST AND MARINE INTEREST SHOULD CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... THE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE TODAY...THEN BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN BRISK ELY TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR GALE FORCE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST TODAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATES SOME OF THE NLY ATLANTIC SWELLS HAVE BLED INTO PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN. THE NWW3 REMAINS MUCH TOO LOW IN THIS AREA SO WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AND INDICATE SEAS TO 12 FT TODAY THEN GRADUALLY BRING THEM DOWN TO VALUES EXPECTED FROM WINDWAVE ALONE BY FRI. HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD FROM THE SE UNITED STATES ON MONDAY MAY TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT BACK UP AGAIN ON MON WITH SOME INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OVER W HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLANTIC... PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS RESULTING IN RAPIDLY EVOLVING CONDITIONS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG 26N/27N TODAY THEN QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE FAR NW PART FRI AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING RELATIVELY STRONG...EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS TO BE IN ADVANCE OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT RATHER THAN BEHIND IT. GFS STILL INSISTING ON WINDS TO 30 KT WITH GALE CONDITIONS STRADDLING THE N BOUNDARY. THE OTHER GLOBALS MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING HIGHER. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL UP THE FORECAST A TAD OVER N WATERS FRI. GALE CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY GIVEN UPWARD TRENDS IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE. POST-FRONTAL NLY WINDS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT NW SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 11 FT BEHIND THE FRONT FRI. BY SAT...THE FRONT GETS REINFORCED BY BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY BOOST THE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS THEN DROP BELOW 20 KT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NE CORNER SUN AND MON BUT LINGERING NLY SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS IN THE 9 TO 14 FT RANGE. S OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE ELY FLOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE W OF 70W FRI AND SAT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE UNUSUALLY GOOD SAILING CONDITIONS FOR THE WINTER THROUGHOUT THE BAHAMAS. NORTHERLIES PICK BACK UP AGAIN OVER THE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT AND SUN BUT REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KT. NLY SWELLS WILL ALSO BEGIN AFFECTING POINTS N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS SUN AND MON PRODUCING THE TYPICAL N/S DELINEATION IN SEA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. SWELLS BLEEDING THROUGH PASSAGES MAY PRODUCE ROUGH CONDITIONS SUN AND MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RHOME