000 AGXX40 KNHC 010622 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST WED MAR 01 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WITH HIGH PRESS NOW WELL E OF THE AREA...E TO SE RETURN FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. THIS OVERALL REGIME EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU. THE ONE TRICKY PART TO AN OTHERWISE STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST IS THE LOW LEVEL FRAGMENTS OF A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH HAS BECOME DETACHED AND IS NOW MOVING WNW OVER THE SE GULF. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT SHOWS THE TROUGH DELINEATES THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE BASIN WITH 15-20 KT TO ITS EAST. AMAZINGLY...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ACTUALLY PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE. GIVEN THIS...WILL ADD MENTION OF FEATURE IN ZONES PRIMARILY TO DELINEATE CONDITIONS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW REACHING THE N CENTRAL GULF LATE THU THEN DISSIPATING BY EARLY FRI. THEREAFTER...THE PATTERN COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES WHICH BUILDS SWD FROM THE S UNITED STATES. THIS WILL LIKELY FRESHEN UP THE WINDS PRODUCING MODERATE NE TO ELY FLOW OVER THE GULF DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE GFS ON FRIDAY BUT THE FEATURE LOOKS TO WASH OUT QUICKLY AND BE DISSIPATED BY SAT. SW N ATLC... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 26N NOW IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. THE RIDE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU PRODUCING WLY FLOW OVER THE N HALF OF THE AREA AND ELY FLOW OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA. N OF THE RIDGE...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH TWO FRONT QUICKLY MOVING FROM E TO W RESULTING IN RAPIDLY EVOLVING CONDITIONS. THE FIRST FRONT...CURRENTLY PASSING N OF THE AREA... WILL RESULT IN A BELT OF 20-25 KT SWLY FLOW GENERALLY N OF 29N THROUGH LATE WED. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ACTUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. STILL SOME MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WITH THE FRONT. THE LATEST GFS INDICATES CONDITIONS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH 20-25 KT POST-FRONTAL NLY FLOW BRIEFLY FRI. CONVERSELY...THE NOGAPS SHOWS 20-25 KT IN ADVANCE AND 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...BEST BET IS TO STICK WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS 20-25 KT IN ADVANCE OF AND 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... DIFFUSE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTED WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 20-25 KT TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE ATLC RIDGE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY THROUGH THU WITH 20 TO 25 KT ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. WINDS DROP OFF AGAIN OVER ALL AREAS FRI THROUGH SUN AS A NEW FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AGAIN. NLY SWELLS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES INCLUDING THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES TODAY INTO WED. THESE AREAS ARE ALWAYS TRICKY TO FORECAST AND THE NWW3 DOES NOT APPEAR TO RESOLVE THE HIGHER SWELLS MOVING THROUGH THE PASSAGES WELL. GIVEN RECENT SHIP REPORTS OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS... EXPECT SEAS AT LEAST TO 10 FT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER TEENS. SWELLS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THU OVER CARIBBEAN BUT PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC THROUGH THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RHOME