000 AGXX40 KNHC 090609 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST THU FEB 09 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE ERN US TONIGHT WITH TWO STRONG BRANCHES MERGING OVER THE SE US. THE NRN BRANCH SUPPLYING THE ENERGY AND THE SRN BRANCH SUPPLYING THE MOISTURE..ALBEIT MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL. DAY 1 FINDS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING RAPIDLY SE INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. BETTER KNOWN AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER FOR IT'S ORIGINATION POINT..THIS ONE IS TAKING A MORE SRN ROUTE. AN UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EWD TO NEAR 20N50W DAY 1 WHILE A DEEP VORTEX WAS OVER THE ERN ATLC NEAR 35N18N. ON THE SURFACE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST E OF 70W DAY 1 WITH STRONGEST WINDS E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE ATLC RIDGE IS NEAR 28N45W WITH TRADES OF 20 KT S OF 20N E OF 60W. CARIB WINDS NE 20 KT W OF THE DIFFUSE FRONT. GULF WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BUT INCREASING OVER THE NE PORTION AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SE. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER. LOOK FOR ATLC WINDS TO INCREASE WITH THE FRONT N OF 27N W OF 70W. THE CLIPPER RACES EWD TO MID OCEAN DAY 2 WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL S OF 40N. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS IN THE SRN BRANCH ALONG 100W DAY 2 WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ON THE SURFACE THE NEW COLD FRONT CATCHES UP WITH THE OLD ONE E OF 60W AND WINDS INCREASE N OF 27N ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. RETURN FLOW INCREASES W OF 90W AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER ERN TX. OUTLOOK PERIOD... DAY 3 FINDS THE TWO SHORTWAVES MERGING OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MOVING EWD WITH A FRESH SUPPLY OF COLD AIR. A NEW COLD FRONT WAISTS NO TIME RACING ACROSS THE GULF WITH GALE CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE ATLC W OF 75W N OF 28N MAY BE APPROACHING GALE FORCE AS WELL..ALL DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES TRACKING NE. TRADES MOSTLY ELY AT 20 KT WITH A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF AND LIFTS NE DAY 4 WITH A TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE NE GULF. A STRONG NWLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL USHER IN ADDITIONAL COLD AIR..AND A 1035 MB HIGH SETTLES INTO S TX DAY 4 WITH STRONG GUSTY N WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE GULF..CARIB AND ATLC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE ATLC RIDGE WHILE RECEDING EWD REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AND TRADES INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT S OF 24N E OF 50W. DAY 5 FINDS ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF COLD AIR SWEEPING INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH..THIS ONE SWEEPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUT STILL MAINTAINING A STRONG NWLY FLOW OVER THE GULF AND ATLC W OF 70W. UPPER RIDGING HOLDS ON OVER MID OCEAN NEAR 32N40W. THE COLD FRONT RUNS OUT OF GAS DAY 5 NEAR 70W BUT A NEW AIRMASS MOVES RAPIDLY SE OVER THE SE US AND WILL RE-INERGIZE THE OLD FRONT. THE ATLC RIDGE CONINUES EWD BUT MAINTAINS TRADES TO 25 KT S OF 23N E OF 50W. CARIB WINDS ALSO TO 25 KT W OF A COLD FRONT. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG