000 AGXX40 KNHC 021811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST THU FEB 02 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH THREE FRONTS TO DEAL WITH. LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE SE TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE WELL NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ATLC RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TROUGH FRI. LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NE GULF INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LINE HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30 KT WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE TSTMS. FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXTREMELY WEAK AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS OCCUR WITH THE NEXT STRONG FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NW GULF COAST LATE FRI NIGHT. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SOMEWHAT LOW SINCE MODELS STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. GFS STILL FLIP/FLOPPING ON WINDS WITH 12Z RUN INDICATING STRONGER WINDS OVER GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLC THAN THE 06Z SHOWED. GFS IS NOW STRONGER THAN THE NAM, UKMET OR NOGAPS. WILL LIKELY KEEP 20-25 KT WINDS OVER GULF FOR NOW. IT IS GETTING MUCH CLOSER TO THE EVENT SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. FORECAST CURRENTLY INCLUDES WINDS TO 30 KT AHEAD OF FRONT OVER THE ATLC. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM FORECAST. WITH FASTER TIMING OF FRONT WINDS DECREASE OVER THE GULF QUICKLY AND ARE LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUN MORNING. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW SETS UP FAST WITH 20 KT OR GREATER WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY SUN AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO MON AND REACHES ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TRADES MAY DECREASE A LITTLE AS ATLC RIDGE RETREATS AHEAD OF FRONT THIS WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BROWN