000 AGXX40 KNHC 190550 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST THU JAN 19 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW CARIB TO 30N60W TONIGHT WITH WSW UPPER FLOW N OF 30N. CLOSED UPPER LOW E OF LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N55W. DAY 1 FINDS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HOLDING OFF PENETRATION OF THE STRONG WESTERLIES N OF 30N. CLOSED UPPER LOW E OF LESSER ANTILLES DRIFTING WWD. DEEP VORTEX OVER NE ATLC DRIFTING S. ON THE SURFACE A DISSIPATING FRONT ALONG 65W NEAR 30N SEPARATES POLAR AIR MOVING OFF THE SE COAST AND THE ATLC RIDGE FURTHER E. STRONG GRADIENT OVER MOST OF REGION WILL MAINTAIN ELY WINDS TO 25 KT. GALE CONDITION ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE GFS MODEL SHOWS 30 KT. UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME DAY 2 WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY STATIONARY WITH CENTER NEAR 28N74W. NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. DEEP VORTEX OVER ERN ATLC MOVING S TO NEAR 32N28W. LARGE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT OVER MOST OF AREA DAY 2. ELY TRADES 25 TO 30 KT S OF 24N E OF 80W. OUTLOOK PERIOD... SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS NE AND WEAKENS THUS NO AFFECT FOR OUR AREA DAY 3. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM NOW EXTENDING FROM SW GULF TO 30N60W. E ATLC VORTEX MOVING E TO NEAR 32N22W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WSW TO 15N50W. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 60W CENTERED JUST N OF AREA. GRADIENT STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 25 TO 30 KT S OF 24N AND E OF 80W. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW GULF WITH GUSTY NE WINDS. GFS SHOWS 30 KT BUT GRADIENT DOESN'T LOOK THAT TIGHT. DAY 4 FINDS UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EWD WITH CENTER NEAR 28N62W. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD SRN PLAINS WHILE E ATLC TROUGH STILL EXTENDS SW TO LESSER ANTILLES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF BECOMES STATIONARY WITH THE WRN PORTION MOVING N AS A WARM FRONT. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 30N WITH A PERSISTENT GRADIENT S OF 23N E OF 80W KEEPING TRADES 25 TO 30 KT. SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 5 WITH UPPER FLOW OVER GULF BECOMING MORE SWLY. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS NEAR 26N63W. UPPER TROUGH OVER E ATLC RECEDES TO E OF 30W. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TX COAST DAY 5 WITH NLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. ATLC RIDGE MOVES TO 30N60W STILL MAINTAINING STRONG GRADIENT S OF 23N AND E OF 80W WITH ELY WINDS 25 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 10N TO 13N E OF 78W...AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG