000 AGXX40 KNHC 070548 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN US TONIGHT WITH AXIS ALONG 80W SHIFTING E. TROUGH EXTENDS S OF 20N OVER WRN CARIB. LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ATLC FROM NE CARIB NEWD. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO 75W DAY 1 WHILE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES TO 70W WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT. ATLC SURFACE RIDGE E OF 55W SUPPORTING ELY TRADES 20 TO 25 KT. NW CARIB WINDS REMAIN GUSTY TO 25 KT DAY 1 WHILE GULF QUIETS DOWN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ENE TO 70W DAY 2 AS UPPER FLOW W OF TROUGH BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MID ATLC UPPER RIDGE ELONGATED NE/SW WHILE A DEEP VORTEX OVER ERN ATLC MOVES SW. UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER GULF. ATLC COLD FRONT WEAKENS DAY 2 NEAR 60W WITH DECREASING WINDS W OF FRONT. ATLC RIDGE E OF 50W MAINTAINS TRADES TO 25 KT. CARIB WINDS NELY 20 KT AND GUSTY W OF 70W WHILE RETURN FLOW SETS UP W OF 90W OVER GULF. OUTLOOK PERIOD... DAY 3 FINDS UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 30N45W EXTENDING SW OVER CARIB AND INTO GULF. DEEP VORTEX DROPS S TO NEAR 30N20W OVER ERN ATLC. EVIDENCE OF SPLIT FLOW IN WESTERLIES BEGINNING N OF 30N OVER CONTINENT. ATLC SURFACE FRONT WEAKENS FURTHER DAY 3 ALONG 55W. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG 30N WITH NE AND E TRADES INCREASING 20 TO 25 KT MOST SECTIONS EXCEPT ERN GULF. RETURN FLOW W OF 90W TO 20 KT. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING E IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES DAY 4 OVER SRN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES REGION BETWEEN 40W AND 80W WHILE DEEP VORTEX OVER ERN ATLC CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 26N24W. ON THE SURFACE ATLC RIDGE MAINTAINS ITSELF ALONG 32N WITH NE AND E TRADES REMAINING BRISK 20 TO 25 KT ALL AREAS S OF 27N. GUSTY WINDS EXTEND INTO ERN GULF WHILE RETURN FLOW W OF 90W DECREASES. WEAK FRONT OVER TX MOVING SE. SHORTWAVE OVER SRN PLAINS CLOSES OFF DAY 5 AS IT MOVES EWD TO TN VALLELY. SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SRN BRANCH THEREFORE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR MOVING INTO SE US. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER MID ATLC DAY 5 WHILE DEEP VORTEX WEAKENS TO AN OPEN TROUGH E OF 40W. ON THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 32N WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT ELY TRADES REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT E OF 80W. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO ERN GULF BUT AIRMASS WEAK FOLLOWING FRONT AND WINDS ONLY 15 KT W OF FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG