000 AGXX40 KNHC 041811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST WED JAN 4 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN UNUSALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS...1-2 FT...ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING THEN RACE EWD OVER THE GULF EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY FRI. ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POST-FRONTAL NLY FLOW IN THE 20-30 RANGE ALL WATERS...EXCEPT 30-35 KT OVER SW WATERS. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH EXCEPTION TO WAVE HEIGHTS AS THE NWW3 IS TYPICALLY TOO SLOW BUILDING THE SEAS BEHIND FRONTS. WINDS DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT WITH ALL AREAS BELOW 20 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH SAT NIGHT OVER SE PART. HIGH WILL PREVAIL SUN WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER NW WATERS. SW N ATLC...WHILE THE ATLC COLD MAY STILL BE PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS...THE AREA HAS PUSED E OF AREA SO GALE WARNINGS WERE DROPPED IN MORNING ISSUANCE. THIS RAPID WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF TODAY WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU. BUOYS ALONG FLORIDA COAST ALREADY SHOWING SWELL HAS DROPPED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE W HALF OF THE AREA BUT LIKELY REMAIN HIGH OVER THE E PART. WILL GRADUALLY BRING DOWN THE SWELLS E OF 75W TONIGHT THROUGH AND THU. THEREAFTER...SLY WINDS START TO INCREASE AGAIN AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AREA AND MOVES OFF THE SE COAST THU NIGHT. GFS APPEARS TO BE TRENDING A LITTLE WEAKER AND NON OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOR ANY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. BASED ON THIS AND COORDINATION WITH OPC...GALE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LATEST GFS SHOWING 20-25 WITH FRONT BUT WILL CONTINUE SHOW 20-30 KT...BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND FRONT...TO ALLOW SOME LEEWAY IN MODEL TRENDS. BASED ON THESE NUMBERS...MAX SEAS EXPECTED IN THE 9-14 FT RANGE FRI NIGHT THROUGH LATE SAT. CONDITIONS SUBSIDE RAPIDLY SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SAVE A SMALL AREA NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE A FEW 20 KT BARBS SHOWED UP ON THE MORNING QUIKSCAT. THE S HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC IS ALSO STILL EXPERIENCING 20 KT WINDS. ESTIMATING THE SEAS REMAINS PROBLEMATIC WITH A FEW SHIPS STILL REPORTING HEIGHTS WELL ABOVE THE NWW3 AND THAT EXPECTED FROM A WINDWAVE ALONE. BEST GUESS IS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE NE SWELL TRAIN THAT MOVED THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT. THUS...I WILL GO A LITTLE ABOVE NWW3 GUIDANCE TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY BRING THE SEAS BACK IN LINE WITH THE NWW3 BY TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD THROUGH FRI AS THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH FRI RESULING IN MODERATE ELY TRADES. NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA EARLY FRI BRINGING WITH IT 20-25 KT NLY FLOW. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE EXPECTED GMZ082 THU NIGHT AND FRI. FORECASTER RHOME