000 AGXX40 KNHC 051816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA SWWD TO 21N97W. BUOYS ARE INDICATED STEADY NNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 9-10 FT AT 42019 AND 42020. WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN 09 HR GFS FCST SO WILL TREND TOWARD LOWER VALUES THAN GFS FIRST PERIOD. IN ANY EVENT THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA THROUGH 25N90W TO 19N95W THIS EVENING...AND FROM THE SRN TIP OF FLORIDA THROUGH 24N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE TUE. BY LATE WED THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WHICH PULLS EXISTING FRONT NWD TO ALONG 26N90W TO 26N81W. LOW PRES MOVES EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST TO NEAR PENSACOLA BY LATE THU AND NE OF THE AREA EARLY FRI. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE NW HALF OF THE GULF BY LATE THU AND CLEARS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE FRI. 1038 MB HIGH PRES AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT USHERS IN GALES IN THE GULF W OF 90W THU WITH THE GFS/NAM AND THE CMC ALL DEPICT 35-40 KT WINDS AT THE 10-M AND 1000 MB LEVELS. WILL GO AHEAD AND INDICATED EXPECTED GALES FOR THE NW AND SW GULF ZONES FOR THU GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CAA WITH THIS FRONT VERSUS THE CURRENT ONE. NWW3 DRIVES SEAS UP TO 15-17 FT WITH THIS EVENT WHICH MAY BE OVERDONE BY A FOOT OR TWO...GIVEN THE VERIFYING SEAS WITH THE CURRENT FRONT. WINDS VEER TO THE N AT 25-30 KT OVER MOST OF THE GULF EARLY FRI...THEN DROP OFF TO 20-25 KT LATE FRI AND DOWN TO 10-15 KT N OF 25N SAT AND 15-20 KT S OF 25N. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES ACROSS THE ATLC WILL MOVE EWD AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AND GUSTY OVER THE AREA N OF 29N AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE FRONT ITSELF MOVES OFF THE SE COAST TONIGHT AND SWEEPS EWD AND EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO 26N80W BY LATE TUE. NW WINDS PICK UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND VEER TO NE TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WEAKENS FROM 28N65W TO NEAR 25N80W WED BUT STRONG DAMMING HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLC FRESHENS NE WINDS TO 20-25 KT LOCALLY 30 KT N OF THE FRONT LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. FRONT LIFTS NWD FROM 26N65W TO 28N81W BY LATE THU IN ADVANCE OF NE GULF LOW WITH E TO SE WINDS OF 25-30 KT N OF THE FRONT. STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE COAST EARLY FRI AND EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO 26N80W BY LATE FRI...AND FROM 29N65W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY LATE SAT. STRONG NWLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT DECREASE BY LATE FRI AND VEER TO THE NE AT 15 KT EARLY SAT AND 10 KT BY LATE SAT. NWW3 ONLY BUILDS SEAS TO 10-11 FT WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE WINDS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC TODAY WILL KEEP THE TRADES TO 20 KT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. WINDS WEAKEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER BUILDING HIGH PRES WED THROUGH SAT AGAIN RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN THE ELY TRADES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE LATE WED/THU AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W THU INTO FRI. THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT ON SAT RESULTS IN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE TRADES TO 15-20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU. GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU. FORECASTER COBB