000 AGXX40 KNHC 300737 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... HIGH PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A CENTER NEAR 15N83W COVERS A LARGE AREA THAT TOUCHES THE SW PART OF THE ATLC GENERALLY S OF 25N AND W OF 73W. LARGE TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS W TO 70W. BROAD TROUGH MOVING INTO THE E PART OF THE U.S. EXTENDS SWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO S TO ABOUT 25N. THE E ATLC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU THEN IT WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT E THU AND FLATTEN OUT FRI AND SAT. THE TROUGH OVER THE E U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE E AND ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC ON THU THEN ALSO FLATTEN OUT FRI AND SAT WITH FLOW BECOMING STRONG FROM THE NW LATE FRI THROUGH SUN N OF 19N W OF 70W WITH WLY FLOW OVER REMAINDER OF ATLC ZONE AND REACHING SWD TO CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 15N BY SUN. SURFACE... TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WELL E OF AREA NEAR 31.4N 51.9W IS MOVING W AT 7 KT PER NHC ADVISORY ISSUED AT 30/0300 UTC. PERSISTENT TROUGH S OF EPSILON EXTENDS FROM 26N51W SW TO 14N60W. EPSILON IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WWD THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN TURN NW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN N AND NEWD WELL NE OF AREA THU AND FRI. STILL THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE PROPAGATION OF LARGE SWELLS FROM EPSILON INTO FORECAST ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AS ALREADY SEEN IN NUMEROUS SHIP OBSERVATIONS. SO WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING OF LARGE SWELLS OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC E OF ABOUT 72W AND NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AS WELL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRI WITH SLOW DECREASING TREND AFTERWARDS TO 8 FT OVER NE PART BY SUN. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THU THEN WEAKEN LATE THU INTO FRI AS RIDGING PROTRUDES SE ACROSS THE NW TROPICAL N ATLC FRI THROUGH SUN. AREA OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS N OF 24N E OF 66W WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG SLY WINDS OVER THE NW PART OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE ARE SEEN AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N78W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND CONTINUES SW TO FORT MEYERS AND SW TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TSTMS ACTIVITY HAS JUST ABOUT DIMINISHED ALONG THE FRONT. NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE DECREASING WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 KT E OF 88W AS SEEN IN SHIP AND BUOY DATA. THESE WINDS WILL WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED OVER THE W GULF TO LESS THAN 5 FT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SEAS UP TO 8 FT S OF 25N E OF 90W WILL DECREASE TO 5 FT OR LESS FRI THROUGH SUN AS ADVERTISED BY NWW3 GUIDANCE. NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND E GULF FRI AND SAT...THEN A RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTED E-W ALONG 26N SUN. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC REACHING A 31N76W TO 25N80W LINE LATE WED NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS...AND EXETNDS FROM 31N71W TO E CUBA THU AND FROM 28N65W TO E CUBA FRI. SEAS OVER THE W ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN FRI AND SAT AS A RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF LARGE NLY SWELLS MOVES SWD INTO THE AREA. DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER TEXAS ON SAT WILL INCREASE SLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO THEN WEAKEN SUN AS THE RIDGE RETREAT EWD TO THE SW N ATLC AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS SUN. TRADES CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS SHUNTED EWD WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SE OF THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COASTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH TRADES THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN INCREASE TO 20 KT LATER SAT AND SUN OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING ROUGHLY ALONG 30N. LARGE N-NE SWELLS PROPAGATING SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AS STATED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES THROUGH FRI WITH MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHT IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE SUBSIDING TO 6 FT SAT AFTERNOON AND SUN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE