000 AGXX40 KNHC 191858 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC AREA NORTH OF 25N EXTENDS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE WILMA. TROUGH WILL RETREAT TO N OF 30N LEAVING BEHIND A RATHER WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE. RATHER STRONG WESTERLIES WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND N FROM THERE THROUGH SAT THEN BEGIN TO DIG FURTHER S OVER THE GULF SUN AND MON AS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF. LATEST GFS SHARPENS THIS TROUGH AND DIGS IT PRETTY FAR TO THE S OVER THE CENTRAL AND E GULF BY MON. OTHER GLOBAL ALSO INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL DIG S ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E GULF SUN AND MON. LATEST NHC FORECAST ISSUED AT 1500Z HAS HURRICANE WILMA MOVING NW INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THU NIGHT FRI MORNING THEN INTO THE SE GULF FRI MORNING WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NE AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA SAT. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE... OTHER THAN WILMA...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC AS THE FAR E ATLC RIDGE REMAINS TO JUST E OF THE AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED UNDER THE UPPER SECTION...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF NLY 25 KT TO ALONG THE SW LOUISIANA COAST LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF 25 NLY WINDS SPREADING INTO THE W GULF MON. ECMWFHR SIMILAR TO GFS WITH THESE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MON. FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL GO WITH NW-N WINDS 15-20 KT SAT AND SUN AND INCREASE WINDS 20-25 KT FOR MON. WINDS OVER REMINDER GULF WILL BE MAINLY INFLUENCED BY WILMA THROUGH MON...ALTHOUGH DECREASING SW PART LATE SUN AND MON. WILL ADJUST THESE WINDS ACCORDINGLY...IF FUTURE MODEL LEAN TOWARDS AN UPWARDS TREND. LONG DURATION ELY FLOW OVER THE E GULF IS ALREADY RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING UP TO 7 FT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SE GULF THROUGH EARLY FRI PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF WILMA INTO THE SE AS LARGE SWELLS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED BY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. SHIP PCEX JUST E COZUMEL REPORTED A COMBINED SEA OF 17 FT THIS MORNING. BUOY 42056 IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA IS REPORTING COMBINED SEAS UP TO 15 FT. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 59W IS MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE WILL BE NEAR 64W THU 69W FRI AND MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN SEA SAT AND SUN MOVING W OF AREA MON. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W S OF 14N IS MOVING W 15-20 KT. MAIN IMPACT OF THESE WAVES WILL BE SEEN IN THE FORM OF INCREASING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN ZONES (ZONES 087, 086 AND POSSIBLY 082). .WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 15N W OF 81W...AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER LL