000 AGXX40 KNHC 141826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... INCREASED WINDS FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVR SW GULF IN EARLIER PACKAGE BASED ON 42055 WHICH HAS BEEN GUSTING 20 KT IN THE MORNING...BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN OFF TO ABT 10 KT LAST HR. THE W TO E ORIENTED SFC RIDGE SHUD PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS 10 KT OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WITH EXCEPTION BEING SOME 15 TO 20 KT WINDS OVER S AND W PORTIONS OF GULF THRU THU NIGHT. BY DAY5 MON...GFS HAS BEEN BRINGING THE WEAK LOW PRES IT DVLPS NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS THRU FL STRAITS AND INTO ERN GULF. 00Z HI RES ECMWF NOT DVLPG LOW...BUT IS WEAKER THAN GFS...PUSHING A TROF EWRD THRU TO FAR E GULF. AS NOSE OF HIGH PRES HOLDING ALNG N GULF COAST...WILL MENTION SOME E 15 TO 20 KT FOR N PARTS OF E AND MIDDLE GULF MON. WILL BE STAYING CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE FOR PERIOD. SW N ATLANTIC... WARNING CONDITIONS ASSOC WITH OPHELIA EXITED THE OFFSHORE WTRS THIS MORNING. 1040Z 12.5KM QUIKSCAT PASS STILL INDICATED AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT N OF ABT COCOA BEACH...AND W OF 75W. WINDS SHUD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BELOW 25 KT TONIGHT. AS OPHELIA ACCELERATES NE THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK W ACROSS THE WATERS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI. AND SHOULD ESTABLISH A MORE TYPICAL N OF RIDGE WLY FLOW AND S OF RIDGE ELY FLOW PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAJORITY OF GLOBAL GUIDANCE WANTS TO DVLP SOME WEAKNESS IN SFC PRES FIELD NR FAR SE BAHAMAS EARLY SAT. GFS SEEMS MOST ROBUST...WHILE 12Z CANADIAN...12Z NOGAPS AND 00Z ECMWF PREFER A TROF LIKE FEATURE. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISENT WITH WEAK LOW DVLPMNT FOR FEW RUNS NOW. FOR NOW WILL BE HOLDING WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK LOW/TROF INDICATING A SUBTL WIND SHIFT LATE SAT AND SUN. GFS SHIFTS FEATURE E OF SW N ATLC BY MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... 1040Z QUIKSCAT INDICATED THE TYPICAL ENHANCED E FLOW OVER FAVORED AREA S OF JAMAICA AND DOMINICA TO S AMERICAN COAST. THESE WINDS SHUD GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR SHORT TERM. A TROPICAL WAVE..ALONG 52W AT 12Z THIS MORNING WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THU...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS TO A 20 KT MAX AS IT PASSES. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DVLP LOW PRES ASSOC WITH A SECOND WAVE THAT NEAR 41W THIS MORNING. THE WAVE/LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER TRPCL N ATLC SAT...MOVING NE THEREAFTER. WILL BE RELYING ON GUIDANCE...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS FEATURE HAS NOT YET DVLPD. CONVECTION DOES APPEAR BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH. 12Z GFS AND ASSOC 12Z WW3 ARE VERY ENTHUSIASTIC WITH SEAS UP TO 17 FT OVR FAR NE CORNER OF TRPCL N ATLC WTRS MON. WILL BE GOING WITH 12 FT MAX HERE WITH THIS PACKAGE. ALREADY HAD SOME 25 KT WINDS IN PREV FCST AS WAVE/LOW MOVES E AND NE...AND WILL BE MAINTAINING THIS TREND WITH THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SEE LATEST ATLC TROPICAL OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFO ON THIS SCENARIO. .WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CLARK/SANDOVAL