000 AGXX40 KNHC 180453 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. MAIN MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST W OF AZORES NEAR 37N33W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WSW ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC THEN W ALONG 27N ACROSS FL INTO GULF DAY 1. SURFACE RIDGE MIRRORS MID LEVEL WITH WEAK AXIS ALONG 27N. WEAK DISTURBANCE NE OF LEEWARDS BEING WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AS ENVIRONMENT SLOWLY BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS MOSTLY ON LIGHT SIDE DAY 1 WITH WEAK GRADIENT MOST AREAS. DAY 2 FINDS MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMING DETACHED FROM IT'S MAIN ANCHOR. THUS ANOTHER WEAKNESS DEVELOPS OVER MID OCEAN NEAR 50W. SECOND ANCHOR OF MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER N GULF. AT THE SURFACE ONE HIGH CENTER NEAR 30N60W AND ANOTHER WEAKER ONE OVER N CENTRAL GULF DAY 2. GFS HINTS AT WEAK TRPL DISTURBANCE MOVING TO NEAR 22N66W DAY 2. CARIB WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED DAY 3 OVER MID ATLC AS HEIGHTS FALL FROM THE S AND FROM THE N LATITUDES. TWO MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERS PERSIST..ONE OVER AZORES THE OTHER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH DAY. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS WEAK DAY 3 WITH AXIS GENERALLY ALONG 27N. DISTURBACE MOVES TO NEAR 23N70W ACCORDING TO GFS MODEL. LITTLE CHANGE TO SURFACE WINDS ALL AREAS. E ATLC MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AS SOME SORT OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG 45W. SECOND MID LEVEL CENTER SHIFTS WWD TO SRN PLAINS DAY 3 BUT MAINTAINS RIDGE AXIS E TO 65W. AT THE SURFACE THE PRESSURE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN W OF 70W WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL TROUGH WORKING S INTO NRN GULF DAY 4. OTHERWISE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WSW TO NEAR 30N65W. WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT ALL AREAS. WITH SECOND MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER CONTINUING TO MOVE WWD DAY 5 A STRONG TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES DRIVES SE INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE WEAKNESS OVER THE SW ATLC AND KEEP THE E ATLC RIDGE AT BAY E OF 60W AND CENTERED NEAR 40N37W. AT THE SURFACE THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS W TO 70W AND STRENGTHENS SOME WITH MODERATE TRADES E OF 60W. GFS MOVES THE DISTURBACE N TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS DAY 5. POSSIBLE FRONT DROPS TO N GULF COAST DAY 5 OTHERWISE GRADIENT WEAK OVER CARIB AND GULF AND WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON ISSUANCE OF NHC ADVISORY. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG