000 AGXX40 KNHC 031716 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ORIENTED NE/SW FROM 27N65W TO THE N/CNTRL BAHAMAS AND IS INCREASING THE GRADIENT TO ITS S...ESPECIALLY OVER THE N ATLC TROPICAL WATERS. BUOY/SHIP OBS AND QSCAT DATA INDICATE WINDS AT LEAST 20 KT E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SEAS HAVE BEEN BUMPING UP TO NEAR 7 FT AS BUOY 41100. SEAS AT BUOY 41040 JUST E OF THE WATERS HAVE BEEN 10 FT ALL MORNING SO EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO SPREAD WWD INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE TUE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W PROGRESSES W. A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WED AND THU BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS THE CURRENT WAVE SO ONLY EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE TO 9 FT. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD STEADY OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE 20-25 KT S OF 23N ON MON NIGHT/TUE AS THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W. THESE WINDS COULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE S/CNTRL BAHAMAS BY WED AND THU. CARIBBEAN... WINDS AND SEAS ARE A LITTLE HIGH OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN TODAY BUT OTHER THAN THAT THE WEATHER BETWEEN 64W AND 80W IS ALMOST PERFECT. THE MAIN CONCERN AT THE MOMENT IS THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH POSSIBLE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS. QSCAT MISSED THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE CENTER IS LOCATED WITHIN A HOLE IN THE OB FIELD...BUT MORE INFO WILL BECOME AVAILABLE ONCE HURRICANE RECON ENTERS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT BUOY 42056 HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALL MORNING TO 20 KT BUT THE SEAS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO RESPOND...ONLY RECENTLY REACHING 5 FT. STILL...WINDS AND SEAS ARE PROBABLY HIGHER IN THE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS OCCURRING W OF 80W. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN LATER TONIGHT AND SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE FOR THIS AREA AFTER 24-36 HRS. ELSEWHERE...THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITH 20-25 KT WINDS OCCURRING N OF COLOMBIA BUT THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RELAX BELOW 20 KT BY TUE. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN WATERS MON EVENING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ATLC WATERS MOVES W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY OBS AND QSCAT DATA PLACE THE SFC RIDGE FROM ABOUT TAMPA BAY SWWD TO 25N97W...OR ROUGHLY ALONG 26N. THE RIDGE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE N AS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. WIND/SEAS FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE AFTER IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NONE OF THE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE CANADIAN AND NAM...TRACK A CLOSED LOW IN THE WIND FIELD OVER THE W GULF MON THRU WED. THIS SEEMS STRANGE GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS USUALLY EAGER TO SPIN UP LOWS WITH ANY SORT OF CONVECTION...AND GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE PIX I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR A LOW TO FORM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... 20-25 KT SELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BEHIND THE WAVE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT IN SQUALLS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE GULF WATERS MON AND TUE THEN POSSIBLY SHIFTING W INTO THE W GULF TUE AND WED. SEAS MAY APPROACH 8 FT IN THIS SWATH BUT THE DURATION OF STRONG WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. AS ALWAYS...SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ALONG 26N/27N BY WED AND THU. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC NONE. CARIBBEAN NONE. GULF OF MEXICO NONE. FORECASTER BERG