000 AGXX40 KNHC 240605 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST QUIKSCAT AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE GLFMEX UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST N OF THE AREA. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY LIES OVER THE E GULF ZONE WHERE A DEVELOPING LOW/TROUGH E OF FLORIDA MAY INFLUENCE THE AREA. FOR NOW...ITS BEST TO GO UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE AFFECT WILL BE TO SIMPLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE THE WINDS TO WEAKEN. GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS POINT. RIDGE BECOMES RE-ESTALISHED MON AND TUE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY WINDS. SW N ATLC... THE SW N ATLC ZONE WILL BE BY FAR THE MOST TRICKY AND UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY...THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN HAS SPLIT FORMING A SLOW MOVING ELY TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH IS LOCATED WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT REGION AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHICH IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FLORIDA E COAST AND 70W. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY WHICH TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 30-40 KT WINDS. SIMILARLY...THE CANADIAN MODEL DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT RESULTING IN 35-40 KT WINDS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS TAKE THE OTHER EXTREME BY MAINTAINING A TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS NEVER EXCEEDING 20 KT. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS DO NOT DEVELOP A LOW BUT KEEP IT AS A WWD MOVING TROUGH. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS WITH A SLOW WWD MOVING TROUGH. THE NAM TAKES THE MIDDLE GROUND BY DEVELOPING A LOW S OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THEN MOVING IT NNW TOWARD N CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH 20-25 KT WINDS TO ITS NORTH. IN LIGHT OF THIS MODEL SPREAD...THE BEST BET IS TO GO WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH KEEPS A CLOSED TROUGH BUT TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 20-25 KT MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF AT LEAST 20 KT UNDER THIS SCENARIO. AS SUCH... UPCOMING PACKAGE WILL BUMP WINDS UP A TAD TO 20-25 KT UPCOMING BUT STAY WITH GOING FORECAST OF DELINEATING WINDS E/W OF A TROUGH RATHER THAN A LOW CENTER. CARIBBEAN... TRADES IN THE CENTRAL TO E CARIBBEAN RUNNING IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BUT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. LATEST GFS IS SHOWING SOLID 25 KT BY SAT AND SUN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THUS...WILL BUMP UP THE FORECAST TO 20-25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. I WOULD'T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 30 KT UNDER THIS PATTERN BUT SLOWLY WALKING THE FORECAST UPWARDS IS BEST UNTIL THE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC AND BAHAMAS. WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS AND SW N ATLC WILL KEEP TRADES LIGHTER THAN NORMAL OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ZONES THROUGH EARLY SAT. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO RETURN LATE SAT AND SUN AND REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...FAIRLY TYPICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST SO NO CHANGES OF NOTE FOR THE GOING FORECAST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC NONE. CARIBBEAN NONE. GULF OF MEXICO NONE. FORECASTER RHOME