000 AGXX40 KNHC 140548 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MAINTENANCE OF BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...BUT THEY CAN'T SEEM TO AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF A LOW OR IF ONE WILL EVEN DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH A LOW OVER THE PAST FOUR RUNS WITH THE LOCATION RANGING FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA UP TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH THE ENSEMBLE GOING SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE BEEN MOST AGGRESSIVE...AS WAS SEEN WITH T.S. ARLENE LAST WEEK...AND BRING THE LOW ACROSS E CUBA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITHIN 48 HRS. BECAUSE OF THE GOOD RESULTS LAST WEEK...I AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO THE W OF THIS FEATURE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE FLOW IS ALSO HIGHLY VARIABLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS LIE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FEEDING INTO THE TROF/DEVELOPING LOW...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING FARTHER N. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING INTO THE AREA MAY INCREASE WINDS TO 15 KT FOR A TIME TONIGHT AND ON TUE...THEN SETTLE DOWN AGAIN BY MID-WEEK. SW N ATLC... SFC RIDGE IS WELL-POSITIONED GENERALLY ALONG 31N KEEPING CONSISTENT ELY FLOW UP TO 20 KT OVER THE WATERS NEAR THE SRN BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S TO 28N OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND THEN BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA BY WED/WED NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT IT MAY BE HARD TO DEVELOP A WELL-DEFINED SYSTEM DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH E CUBA. THE WEAK GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW WILL LIGHTEN THE WINDS...BUT THEN MAY PICK UP AGAIN IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS TO THE NE LATER IN THE PERIOD. SW FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED E OF FLORIDA LATE WED INTO SAT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE DEPARTING LOW TO THE SE. GULF OF MEXICO... A SFC RIDGE ALONG THE N GULF COAST IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY ELY FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO NEAR 27N LATE WED. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OVER THE E/CNTRL GULF WED NIGHT INTO SAT WHICH WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS TO 20 KT ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W...AND THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING W OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE WAVE MOVES W AND THE HIGH MOVES S. LATER IN THE WEEK...THE GFS BEGINS DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA FRI NIGHT AND MOVES IT TO S OF THE FL PANHANDLE ON SAT. THIS WILL CAUSE VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NE GULF BY THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC NONE. CARIBBEAN NONE. GULF OF MEXICO NONE. FORECASTER BERG