000 AGXX40 KNHC 131746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SFC PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER W CARIBBEAN. THIS COUPLED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF THE STORMY WEATHER SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A WEAK LOW NEAR JAMAICA IN RESPONSE TO A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA TO EASTERN CUBA WED...THEN CONTINUING N AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS WILL REACH 20 KT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6-7 FT E OF THE LOW BACK TO AROUND 68W. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND. FAIRLY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING 50W WILL BRING AN BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TO SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT/TUE...AND E CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT/WED. SW N ATLC... SFC RIDGE OVER N PORTION WILL MOVE S AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. CARIBBEAN LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS E CUBA WED...THEN OVER CENTRAL/SE BAHAMAS WED NIGHT BEFORE MOVING NE AND SLOWING DOWN OVER CENTRAL AND NE WATERS THU-SAT. RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP OVER SRN WATERS BY END OF THE PERIOD AS DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH SETS UP OVER SE UNITED STATES...PRODUCING S-SW SFC FLOW OVER W HALF OF AREA. ONLY AREA OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE OVER SRN WATERS TONIGHT/TUE WHERE ELY WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KT. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO E AND S OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT-SAT. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE NEAR N GULF COAST WILL SHIFT S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO A TROUGH OVER THE SE U.S. AND EASTERN GULF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER ALABAMA BY SAT. THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NE WATERS THU AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH SAT. SE WINDS WILL BE IN 15-20 KT OVER FAR W WATERS AND TEXAS CSTL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN DECREASE TUE AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. NORTHERN END OF TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY OVER SW WATERS THROUGH WED. GFS SHOWS A SURGE OF EASTERLY WINDS TO 20 KT E OF THE WAVE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF STRONGER WINDS TONIGHT IN SW GULF...THEN DECREASING TUE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC NONE. CARIBBEAN NONE. GULF OF MEXICO NONE. FORECASTER MOLLEDA