000 AGXX40 KNHC 161805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MAIN FEATURE IS THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. TWO LOWS ARE AT THE SURFACE...ONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W AND THE OTHER SE OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N76W. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG PROBLEM AS THE LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MUCH...HOWEVER THE LOWS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE... APPEARS THAT THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT AND FORECAST STATE OF THE LOW. THE UKMET MOVES THE MAIN LOW NEAR JAMAICA SLOWLY NE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WED...THEN OVER OR JUST E OF THE SE BAHAMAS THU. THE GFS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR EXCEPT IT TAKES A STRONGER LOW FARTHER E NEAR PUERTO RICO. GFS APPEARS TO SUFFER FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WHICH IS FOCUSED E OF THE MAIN LOW. THE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SHOULD DRIFT N AND EFFECTIVELY LEAVE THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC... WEAK RIDGE OVER NW WATERS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT N OF AREA AS LOW PRES MOVES OVER OR E OF THE SE BAHAMAS WED-SAT. GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW TO THE S WILL PRODUCE MODERATE ELY WINDS TO 20 KT OVER SRN WATERS...INCREASINGLY SLIGHTLY THU AND FRI AND EXPANDING NWD TO INCLUDE THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER S WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ACT WITH THE SFC LOW TO DETERIORATE CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 8 FT OVER S HALF OF AREA DURING THE WEEK AS THE WINDS INCREASE. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASED TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS THIS MORNING AS VERIFIED BY QUIKSCAT AND SFC OBS...HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND WEAK HIGH SETTLES OVER AREA. CONDITIONS REMAIN BENIGN UNTIL SAT WHEN GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE FORECASTING A WEAK LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE GULF. THIS LOW APPEARS TO HAVE UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG CLOSED LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SWD OVER LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF. THIS LOW WILL BE PRECEDED BY A FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE FRI AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND W GULF ZONES SAT. WILL INDICATE INCREASING WINDS OVER MIDDLE AND NW ZONES FOR SAT BUT LIKELY NOT EXCEED 20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER MOLLEDA