000 AGXX40 KNHC 301747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUSY MORNING UPDATING FORECASTS TO ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR NW AND SW GULF ZONES AS WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. BUOYS OFF THE TEXAS COAST HAVE BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KT WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS SINCE THE FRONT PASSED AROUND MID-MORNING. FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO ABOUT 80 NM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON OVER NW GULF WATERS...AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER SW GULF WATERS. NAM MODEL...AT LEAST IN SHORT TERM...SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS OVER W GULF. IT HAS WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 KT NEAR TAMPICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES BY. WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF WINDS TO 40 KT EARLY TONIGHT IN SW GULF...THEN DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS ALSO DECREASE OVER NW GULF TONIGHT...BUT STAY NEAR 25 KT. FRONT MOVES INTO MIDDLE AND E GULF TONIGHT...PRECEDED BY LINE OF STRONG STORMS WHICH IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS STAY SLY NEAR 20 KT AHEAD OF FRONT TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO N-NE BEHIND FRONT. SAME MODEL TRENDS HERE AS IN W GULF...WITH NAM INDICATING SLIGHTLY STRONGER POST-FRONTAL WINDS TO 25 KT THAN GFS. WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING 20-25 KT IN MIDDLE GULF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN...WITH MAINLY 15 KT IN E GULF. LATEST MODEL RUNS PUSH FRONT SWD FARTHER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH FRONT MAKING IT TO S FLORIDA-EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LINE SUN NIGHT AND MON BEFORE STALLING. FRONT WILL THEN RETURN NWD TUE AND WED. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST THU. WINDS WILL DECREASE AREA-WIDE MON AND TUE...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE S OVER THE S WATERS WED AND THU AHEAD OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPING LOW. SEAS ALREADY VERIFYING MUCH HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVER NW GULF... AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN. AS IF GALE FORCE WINDS WEREN'T ENOUGH...VSBYS BELOW 3 NM IN SMOKE AND HAZE ARE OCCURRING IN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EXPECTED TO SPREAD E INTO SRN MIDDLE GULF WATERS SUN. SW N ATLC... FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS EFFECTS OF NEXT FRONT WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL TONIGHT. RIDGE CUTTING ACROSS AREA FROM NE-SW WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT S AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY SUN. FRONT WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY ACROSS NW WATERS... EVENTUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 31N71W TO NW BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA LATE MON AND TUE. FRONT LINGERS OVER AREA THROUGH WED...THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE THU. SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER NW PORTION TONIGHT INTO SUN...THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE SUN. BEHIND THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FOR A SHORT TIME LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS RETURN TO ENTIRE AREA MON AND TUE. BUILDING HIGH PRES FROM THE N AND E WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20 KT OVER SRN WATERS WED AND THU...AND SE 20 KT OVER THE NW WATERS THU. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER FAR N WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MAX SEAS OF 10 FT EXPECTED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVERALL AS STRONGEST WINDS STAY W OF 84W AND N OF COLOMBIA. ADDITIONAL WINDS TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES. THE WINDS ACROSS THE PASSAGES WILL DECREASE SUN...AND DECREASE ELSEWHERE SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH BUILDING INTO REGION FROM THE N WILL PRODUCE INCREASING ELY WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS MOST OF AREA WED AND THU. PERSISTENT LOW VSBYS IN SMOKE AND HAZE WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR W CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING SW GULF...GMZ082...N OF 22N W OF 96W... FORECASTER MOLLEDA