000 AGXX40 KNHC 261819 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 PM EST SAT MAR 26 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... INTERMEDIATE SFC ANALYSES INDICATE A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO NEW ORLEANS TO JUST E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE S OF THE TROUGH TO 10-15 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY MIDNIGHT/06Z. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD AND EXTEND FROM MOBILE-23N90W TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN EVENING AND E OF THE AREA BY MON EVENING. NW-N WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THEN SUBSIDE BY LATE MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL TUE WITH RETURN SLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE TUE W OF 95W. HIGH PRESS MOVES E OF THE AREA BY WED. NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF THU AFTERNOON AND EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU EVENING. EARLIER SHIFTS WERE CONCERNED WITH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH THE WINDS. IN ADDITION THE 06Z ENSEMBLES INDICATE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF GALES...10-15 PERCENT BEHIND THE FRONT. SW N ATLC... WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY ERODING BY LATE SUN WITH SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER NW SECTIONS BY SUN AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST MON AND EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO 26N80W BY MON EVENING...AND FROM 31N65W 27N70W TO 22N78W BY TUE EVENING. HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN TUE NIGHT AND WED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE CORNER WHERE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE. HIGH PRESS BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED THU WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... NE WINDS 20-25 KT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 16N PERSIST INTO MON...THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT MON AND STALLS ALONG 20N TUE. BY LATE WED AND THU...ELY TRADES BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS OVER THE SW N ATLC. ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB