000 AGXX40 KNHC 300617 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SUN JAN 30 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF FRONTS AND DEVELOPING LOWS WILL PLAGUE THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE UPCOMING FIVE DAYS. THESE LOWS/FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE FIRST LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TAKING A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL TRACK. THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY MON...THEN TURN ESE MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF 33N60W 12Z TUE....THEN MOVE SLOWLY NE AWAY FROM THE OFFSHORE AREAS WED AND THU. TRAILING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MOVE SE INTO THE ATLC LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN GULF PORTION WILL REMAIN STATIONARY INTO MID-WEEK. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF ALONG THIS FRONT TUE. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IN THE MODELS... BUT THE GFS HAS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THIS NEW LOW ACROSS THE NE GULF LATE WED AND ACROSS FLORIDA THU AND INTO THE ATLC THU NIGHT. GULF OF MEXICO...WINDS HAVE FINALLY DECREASED OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT OVER MOST OF THE GULF WATERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY...BUT A RE-ENFORCING HIGH WILL BUILD NW OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MON WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE FAR NW GULF. BELIEVE THAT GFS MAYBE A SLOW AND LOW ON INCREASING THESE WINDS...IN TURN THE NWW3 LIKELY TOO SLOW IN DEVELOPING SEAS AND WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FURTHER MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE NEW LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH 25-30 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS...CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. BUT MAY HAVE TO KEEP THESE STRONGER WINDS INTO WED. AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST...IT WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SE WITH INCREASING WINDS/SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF LATE WED AND CONTINUING INTO THU. .ATLC...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE ATLC LOW DEVELOPS. TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE N PART TONIGHT. AS THE LOW BEGINS TURING ESE THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NE PART MON. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING GALES INTO THE OFFSHORE AREA DURING THE DAY MON. MON NIGHT THE GALES SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL COVER THE AREA N OF 27N E OF ABOUT 70W. AT THIS TIME GFS INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE 30-40 KT RANGE...NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 21 FT. SINCE THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART GALES MAY LINGER OVER THE FAR NE PART INTO EARLY WED. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THIS AREA INTO THU. BY THU AFTERNOON...ALL EYES WILL BE SHIFTING WEST AS THE NEW GULF LOW MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA AND ENTERS THE W ATLC THU EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THU. GFS IS FORECAST GALES THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW. DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THAT ANY GALES WOULD BEGIN VERY LATE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE...WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINING POSSIBLE GALE AT THIS TIME. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LARGE NLY SWELLS OF 8-12 FT WILL LINGER FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK. .CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC...WESTERN END OF OLD COLD FRONT IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND TOWARDS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. WINDS BECOME NE 20 KT N OF THE FRONT IN THE TROPICAL ATLC TODAY...THEN DECREASE TONIGHT. BUILDING NLY SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE AREA INTO TUE...THEN NEXT FRONT FROM ATLC LOW WILL REACH NW PART OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT. FAIRLY TYPICAL TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRONT FROM NEW LOW MAY REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARNINGS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BROWN