000 AGXX40 KNHC 091708 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1215 PM EST SUN JAN 09 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... DYING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE NRN GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WSW TO NEAR 26N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FRONT SWD ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO NEAR VERACRUZ. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NRN GULF MON AND SLIDES E OF THE AREA TUE. THIS ALLOWS WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE S AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15 KT BY TUE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...SLY WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 KT WED...LOCALLY 25 KT ALONG FAVORED FUNNELING AREAS ON THE TEXAS COAST. THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT IN MORE THAN TWO WEEKS MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT WED AND EXTENDS FROM MOBILE SSWWD ALONG 25N93W TO 18N94W BY THU EVENING AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND 25N87W TO YUCATAN BY LATE FRI, WINDS INCREASE TO NLY 25-30 KT W OF THE FRONT THU. BY FRI A LARGE AREA OF 25 KT WINDS COVER THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT. THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES NW OF THE FRONT APPEARS VERY REMOTE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE PROBABILITIES FROM THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN THE 5-10 PERCENT RANGE. SW N ATLC... QUASI-STATIONARY 1028 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE ATLC NEAR 29N67W AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE ALONG 29N REMAIN INTACT THROUGH TUE BEFORE SLIDING NE OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT/WED. MODERATE ELY WINDS OF 20 KT S OF 26N ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH LIGHTER ...10-15 KT WINDS N OF 26N. OUTLOOK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E WIND REGIME CHANGES FROM ELY TO SE AND WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 70W WED NIGHT INTO THU. BY LATE THU SLY WINDS MAY PICK UP TO 20-25 KT IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA IN MORE THAN TWO WEEKS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 1104 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF 25 KT...LOCALLY 30 KT WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. 15-20 KT WINDS EXTEND OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC N OF 12N. WITH RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW N ATLC THROUGH TUE NIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE WINDS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. OUTLOOK...ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS E OF 60W AND ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASE IN THE ELY WINDS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WED NIGHT/THU THROUGH FRI. NWW3 INDICATES THAT THIS LONG ELY FETCH BUILDS SEAS UP TO 13-14 FT...MAY SHAVE A FOOT OR TWO OFF OF THESE VALUES GIVEN THE HIGH BIAS OF THE NWW3 IN EXTENDED PERIODS. WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WEAKEN LATE THU INTO FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXTENDED HEADS UP OUTLOOK FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS/FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY SAT EVENING....AND FROM 31N65W 23N80W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SUN EVENING. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT USHERS IN A LARGE AREA OF N TO NE 25-30 KT WINDS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OVER VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA N OF THE FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...1040 MB OR GREATER BUILDS OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. CRUISERS/MARINE INTERESTS NEAR FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD TAKE THIS SCENARIO INTO ACCOUNT FOR PLANNING PURPOSES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. $$ FORECASTER COBB