000 AGXX40 KNHC 061816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST THU JAN 06 2005 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ATTEMPT TO MAKE IT INTO AREA...ONE FRI AND ANOTHER SUN...BUT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED OVER FLORIDA WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW FOR ANY SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THESE FRONTS. THEREFORE...FRONTS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER THAN TO INCREASE CLOUDS/SHOWERS OVER FAR NW PORTION BOTH FRI AND SUN. SFC RIDGE FROM 30N65W TO N CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH TO ALONG 30N OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH CENTER BETWEEN 65W-70W. MON AND TUE THE HIGH AND RIDGE MOVE N OF AREA. THESE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE POSITION OF THE HIGH/RIDGE WILL DETERMINE AREA OF STRONGER TRADE FLOW WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY S OF 24N/25N THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIVIDING LINE IS EXPECTED TO CREEP NORTHWARD TO ABOUT 26N MON AND TUE FOLLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH. THE TRADES WILL BE STRONGEST E OF 75W...BUT BY MON AND TUE THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY W OF 75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS SHOULD BE CONSISTENTLY IN 20-25 KT RANGE WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE GFS. NWW3 MODEL IS REASONABLE IN SHOWING HIGHEST SEAS UP TO 12 FT OVER FAR SE PORTION NEAR PUERTO RICO SAT-SUN WHEN FETCH/DURATION OF WINDS WILL BE GREATEST. N OF AREA OF STRONGER TRADES...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY IN 10-15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT RIGHT ALONG 31N W OF 75W WHERE SW FLOW WILL BE IN 15-20 KT RANGE. SEAS IN THIS AREA WILL BE GENERALLY 6 FT OR LESS...HIGHEST OVER E PORTION...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY BY TUE AS STRONGER WIND FIELD SHIFTS N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES OVER ATLC WILL KEEP FRESH TRADES OVER MUCH OF REGION THROUGH TUE. AREA UNDER STRONGER WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY E OF 83W N OF LINE FROM MARTINIQUE TO JUST N OF ABC ISLANDS TO COLOMBIA COAST. WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE NEAR 25 KT...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA IN TYPICALLY STRONGER WIND REGION. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 55W S OF 15N WILL MOVE SLOWLY W ACROSS AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES W...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TEMPORARILY ERODE AND ACT TO DECREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY. THIS BREAK IN THE WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER S PORTION OF TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT/FRI...E CARIBBEAN BEGINNING FRI NIGHT AND ENDING SUN...AND W CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE...WITH WINDS DECREASING ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 KT OVER MOST AREAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS BACK OVER AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH WINDS AGAIN INCREASING FROM E TO W TO PREVIOUS LEVELS. WESTERN EDGE OF STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT W TO ABOUT 85W SUN AND MON. NWW3 SEAS APPEAR SLIGHTLY LOW OVER MOST OF AREA CONSIDERING THE LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF WINDS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE ESTABLISHED TREND OF GOING HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WITH SEA HEIGHTS. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT OVER W GULF SHOWS UP QUITE NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A ROPE CLOUD EXTENDING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HOURS...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY NE OF AREA. WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT JUST OFF TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI AS PART OF FRONT E OF 93W MOVES N OF AREA. W PORTION OF FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT AND WAIT FOR NEXT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TO PUSH IT EASTWARD AGAIN SAT AND SUN. PREVIOUS FORECASTS MENTIONED TWO FRONTS AFFECTING THE AREA...BUT FOR SAKE OF SIMPLICITY WILL JUST MENTION ONE FRONT IN FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL WEAKLY SKIRT NRN AREAS SAT AND SUN...THEN MOVE E OF AREA LATE SUN AS HIGH BUILDS BACK OVER GULF COAST MON AND TUE. NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT CURRENTLY IN 20-25 KT RANGE OVER NW GULF...THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS N OF FRONT FOR REST OF PERIOD. SLY WINDS E OF FRONT W OF 90W HAVE DECREASED DURING THE DAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT AND FRI. WINDS OVER ENTIRE N HALF OF GULF WILL THEN REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS SUN INTO TUE AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NEAR AREA. GFS INDICATES RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER FAR W GULF ON TUE. S OF 25N E OF 90W...OPPOSITE TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS LIGHT E-SE WINDS TONIGHT-FRI LEAD TO STRONGER NE-E WINDS SAT-TUE... PARTICULARLY OVER AND DOWNWIND OF STRAITS OF FLORIDA. NWW3 SEAS LOOK GOOD OVER MOST AREAS...EXCEPT WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WHERE THE MODEL APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. $$ FORECASTER MOLLEDA