000 AGXX40 KNHC 051759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST SUN DEC 05 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 15 UTC SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A 1012 MB SFC LOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND JUST INLAND ALONG THE GULF COAST. NWP MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE BROAD SCALE SE TO S WIND FIELD TODAY AND ACCORDINGLY THE NWW3 IS INITIALIZING SEAS BETTER WITH THE GRID POINT VALUES WITHIN 1-2 FT OF THE BUOY/CMAN OBSERVATIONS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BROAD SE TO S FLOW THROUGH MON. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT MON AND EXTEND FROM MOBILE BAY-26N93W TO 21N97W BY LATE TUE. FRONT USHERS IN NLY WINDS OVER THE GULF...HOWEVER MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER WITH THESE WINDS. THE FRONT STALLS BY EARLY WED AND ESSENTIALLY REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE GULF FROM LATE WED INTO THU. BY FRI...WEAK LOW PRESS DEVELOPS NEAR 27N94W AND DRAWS THE FRONT SWD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GFS INDICATING NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT...WITH A FEW 30 KT BARBS IN THE FUNNELED NLY FLOW DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST. NWW3 INDICATES SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THIS NLY FETCH REGIME. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. SW N ATLC... 1027 MB HIGH PRESS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WILL MOVE EWD AND STRENGTHEN SOME THROUGH LATE MON. BY TUE...WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE FROM 31N72W TO 29N80W IS IN PLACE WITH MODERATE ELY FLOW OF 15-20 KT S OF 24N/25N. RIDGE HANGS IN ALONG 29N/30N WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THIS RIDGE. MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS FRONT HAVE BEEN WEAKER AND AS A RESULT RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ALONG 30N THU AND ONLY YIELDS SLIGHTLY ON FRI...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE SW WINDS OF 15 KT TO ADVANCE EWD TO ALONG 70W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE WRN ATLC RIDGE BY TUE ESSENTIALLY MEANS AN EXPANSION OF THE 20+ KT ELY WIND REGIME OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. BY TUE...LOCALIZED AREA OF 30 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 12-13 FT IN THIS STRONG WIND REGIME AND THIS SOLUTION IS ACCEPTED. ON FRI...AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AREA OF WINDS IS RESTRICTED TO THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. $$ FORECASTER COBB