000 AGXX40 KNHC 230644 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 AM EST TUE NOV 23 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... 1020 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 29N76W KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF AREA. HOWEVER...STILL SEEING 15-20 KT WINDS OVER FAR SRN PORTION. HIGH WILL SLIDE EWD OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT AREA SETS UP OVER GULF OF MEXICO. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER NW PORTION ON WED...THEN STEADILY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT N OF 27N WED NIGHT AND THU. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE RIGHT ALONG 31N WITH EVEN HIGHER WINDS TO GALE FORCE N OF OUR AREA. A STRONG LINE OF TSTMS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PORTION LATE WED NIGHT AND MOVE E ACROSS AREA THU...WHICH WILL PRODUCE HIGHER WINDS/SEAS THAN WHAT IS BEING MENTIONED IN PRODUCTS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW PORTION ON THU...REACHING 31N75W TO S FLORIDA THU NIGHT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH SE AND REACH BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI...THEN BECOME STATIONARY JUST S OF THIS LINE SAT. BRIEF PERIOD OF NW 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N LATE THU WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY FRI AS WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER AREA. SW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FRI...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXITING AREA BY SAT. NWW3 MODEL HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE SEAS BUILDING WED-FRI...THEREFORE WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES IN UPCOMING PACKAGE. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS CURRENTLY 15 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT EXPECT SLY WINDS TO INCREASE LATER TODAY OVER W PORTION AS SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER TEXAS. POTENT SOUTHERN BRANCH OF JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER TEXAS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH GFS AND UKMET MODEL SHOWING A 110-130 KT 250 MB JET OVER THESE AREAS. THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS/LOUISIANA CSTL WTRS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST. THE TSTMS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS FAR N PORTION OF NW AND MIDDLE GULF WED...THEN ACROSS APALACHEE BAY AND FLORIDA BIG BEND WED NIGHT. COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THE TSTMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS LARGE PART OF AREA WED/WED NIGHT...REACHING SE WATERS THU AFTERNOON THEN PUSH SE OF AREA LATE THU NIGHT. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE STRONGEST WITH SLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT...SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF 30 KT OR GREATER WINDS RIGHT ALONG EXPECTED SQUALL LINE. DO NOT PLAN ON GOING AS HIGH AS THE GFS...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS LOCALLY EXCEEDING 30 KT RIGHT ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. ONGOING FORECAST HAS STEADY 25 KT WITH HIGHER CONDITIONS IN TSTMS FOR MIDDLE GULF WED/WED NIGHT WHICH APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE. SW WINDS DECREASE ONCE THEY REACH THE NE GULF DUE TO MAIN LOW MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 25 KT OVER W GULF ZONES WED INTO WED NIGHT...THEN DECREASE BY THU AS HIGH PRES RAPIDLY BUILDS OVER COASTAL PLAINS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IMPROVED BY FRI...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT EXCEPT NW PORTION WHERE SW WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF NEXT WEAKER SYSTEM APPROACHING AREA. NWW3 SEAS LOOK GOOD FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT TOO LOW IN AREA OF STRONG SW WINDS AND BEHIND COLD FRONT WED/WED NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALREADY MADE THESE ADJUSTMENTS AND DO NOT SEE REASON TO CHANGE MUCH IF AT ALL. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT OVER SE CARIBBEAN AND S PORTION OF TROPICAL ATLC WITH OCCASIONAL FLARE UP OF TSTMS. STRONGER WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE OVER AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN 65W-80W AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WED... WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED THU-SAT AS ATLC HIGH RETREATS EWD. FRONT WILL MOVE TO W CUBA-YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA EARLY FRI BUT NOT MAKE ANY FURTHER PROGRESS SWD AS UPPER FLOW NOT SET UP TO PUSH THIS FRONT INTO THE CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT... WINDS SHOULD STAY RATHER LIGHT OVER NW PORTION THROUGH SAT EXCEPT RIGHT OVER YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN OVER NW CARIBBEAN. OVER TROPICAL N ATLC...WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT TODAY THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WED-SAT. SEAS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVER ENTIRE AREA AND WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. $$ FORECASTER MOLLEDA