000 AGXX40 KNHC 211829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST SUN NOV 21 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N73W WITH RIDGE E AND W ALONG 29N IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT S WITH RIDGE ALONG 27N MON. A PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE FROM NEAR SHORE TO FURTHER INLAND DIURNALLY...TILL NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE AROUND SUNSET TUE...MERGES PUSHES EVERYTHING SE OF THE GULF BY SUNRISE SAT. NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED TO 25 KT MAINLY IN GULF. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A TAD SINCE YESTERDAY ON STRENGTH OF SLY FLOW E OF N FL COAST AND NOW SHOWING MAX OF 30 KT THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLIPPING SE ACROSS TOP OF SW N ATLC RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY NLY 20 KT SEAS ONLY TO 9 FT. LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS N FLORIDA AND GULF COASTAL PLAINS. STILL EXPECT THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TO STRENGTHEN BY MID WEEK E OF THIS DISCUSSION AREA. NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED TO 25 KT...BUT SLY FLOW E OF N FL COAST COULD BE NEAR GALE ON THU. BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH THE NE WINDS 20-25 KT PER SSMI AND QSCAT WINDS. BUMPED UP MAX SEAS TO 12 FT...UNFORTUNATELY AFTER I SENT OUT MY 12Z SEAS STATE...BASED ON A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF SHIP REPORTS AND UPDATED SSMI PASS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH PERIOD EXCEPT FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ELY AS RIDGE SHIFTS E WITH TIME. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN CONSISTENTLY NE-E 10-15 KT ENTIRE PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. $$ FORECASTER NELSON