000 AGXX40 KNHC 201812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST SAT NOV 20 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N72W WITH RIDGE E AND W ALONG 29N IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT S WITH RIDGE ALONG 27N BY MON. A PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE FROM NEAR SHORE TO FURTHER INLAND DIURNALLY...TILL NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE AND MERGES. BELIEVE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SO WEAK WILL ONLY SEE THE E PORTION OF THE TROUGH GETTING PICKED UP ON SUN. THE PORTION W OF FLORIDA LIKELY CONTINUE Q-STATIONARY ENHANCING CONVECTION THROUGH MON. THIS FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN SW N ATLC BECOMING MUCH STRONGER MID WEEK...BUT E OF THIS DISCUSSION AREA. ON TUE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY ARRIVE NW GULF AND CLEAN UP THE THE REMNANT TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS E ACROSS THE GULF BY SUNSET THU. NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT EXPECTED TO 25 KT...BUT SLY FLOW E OF N FL COAST COULD BE NEAR GALE ON THU. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS IS PRODUCING A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH THE NE WINDS 20-25 KT PER SSMI AND QSCAT WINDS. ONE SHIP REPORT OF 12 FT SEAS THIS MORNING SEEMS TOO HIGH IN COMPARISON TO OTHER OBS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH PERIOD. ELSEWHERE WINDS REMAIN CONSISTENTLY NE-E 10-15 KT ENTIRE PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. $$ FORECASTER NELSON