000 AGXX40 KNHC 200653 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EST SAT NOV 20 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N72W...WIND AND SEAS HAVE COME DOWN NICELY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NWD...RANGING FROM 5-10 KT AND 4-5 FT RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS S OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND WINDS THERE RUN ABOUT 15-20 KT WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT NEAR N COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND MONA PASSAGE. WIND AND SEAS CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN NIGHT...BUT A LOW CENTER SKIRTING THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR A SHORT TIME ON MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT IN NLY SWELL. SURFACE RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART AND BY TUE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 FT NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST TO 6-7 FT FAR NE CORNER. WINDS PICK UP OVER NW PART OF AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE UNITED STATES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS IS PRODUCING A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH THE EASTERLY TRADES INCREASING FROM 10-15 KT E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO AT LEAST 20-25 KT W OF 70W. THE FEW SHIPS OBS IN THE AREA HAVE REPORTED NO HIGHER THAN 20 KT AND THE LATEST QSCAT PASS ACTUALLY MISSED THE AREA WHERE THE GFS PLACES THE STRONGEST WINDS...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXISTED S OF HISPANIOLA AND DIRECTLY S OF THE HIGH WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAXIMIZED. WINDS CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED AS RIDGE REMAINS N OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ALTHOUGH HIGHEST SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED AROUND 9-10 FT SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IN THE W CARIBBEAN DUE TO EASTERLY SWELL. WINDS REMAIN CONSISTENTLY NE/E 10-15 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THE ENTIRE PERIOD. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTLINE AND STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FEATURE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...PRIMARILY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. NOW THAT THE TROUGH HAS MIGRATED SO CLOSE TO LAND...WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ARE ALMOST NOW UNIFORMLY S/SE 10-15 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE FAR N/CNTRL GULF BEHIND THE TROUGH. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS UNTIL MON NIGHT WHEN WINDS PICK UP OVER THE W GULF AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. GFS AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS ARE VERY AGREEABLE ON FRONT MOVING OFF TEXAS COAST TUE AFTERNOON YET ONCE AGAIN GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. DO NOT FAVOR THIS SOLUTION GIVEN RECENT NO-SHOWS FOR EARLIER FRONTS BUT THERE IS STILL TIME TO MONITOR SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS. ALSO IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRES DOES NOT MOVE IN INSTANTANEOUSLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE STRONGEST POST-FRONTAL WINDS MAY NOT REACH THE NW GULF UNTIL LATE WED. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. $$ FORECASTER BERG