000 AGXX40 KNHC 121814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 110 PM EST FRI NOV 12 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. MAIN LOW PRES AREA OVER TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEAR 17N60W IS MOVING NE. THIS IS CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRES N OF BERMUDA IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS...AS HIGH AS 30 KT ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT DATA...OVER N PORTION OF TROPICAL N ATLC AND SE PORTION OF SW N ATLC ZONES. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT EXTEND SWD INTO NE CARIBBEAN SEA AND WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. AS LOW MOVES NE AND HIGH WEAKENS...AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT SLOWLY E OF ZONES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER ABOVE-MENTIONED AREAS INTO SAT NIGHT. SW N ATLC... SEAS 10-14 FT OVER FAR ERN AREAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER NE SWELLS OF 8-12 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA E OF 75W. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AFFECTING THIS FORECAST WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NW PORTION SAT NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD FROM THE EASTERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE A LONG FETCH OF NE 25-30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES S ACROSS ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUE. HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE TUE AND WED...WHICH WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE WINDS OVER THE AREA BY WED. MODELS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT BY WED AS THE UKMET MODEL IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG LOW DROPPING S IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOWHERE NEAR AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE UKMET...WITH THE GFS MODEL INDICATING A WEAK LOW MOVING E ACROSS BERMUDA LATE WED. HPC MEDIUM RANGE PROGS SHOW A TROUGH ACROSS THIS AREA AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING. WINDS MAY BE ENHANCED SLIGHTLY BEHIND THIS TROUGH...BUT LIKELY NO STRONGER THAN 20 KT EXPECTED. NWW3 MODEL RESPONDS TO THE LONG FETCH OF STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 17 FT OVER AREA MON...AND LARGE NLY SWELL AFFECTING PRACTICALLY ENTIRE AREA TUE INTO WED. WILL FOLLOW NWW3 AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON PATTERN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... OUTSIDE OF WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 17N60W...NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE AFFECTING NW CARIBBEAN AND WATERS S OF HISPANIOLA WITH HIGHER WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE WINDS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER MOST OF NW CARIBBEAN AND PARTS OF SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE SUN AND MON AS STRONG HIGH BUILDS SWD INTO AREA FROM ATLC. WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE...THEN START DECREASING WED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 12 FT BY TUE OVER NW CARIBBEAN. NLY SWELLS FROM CURRENT SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL AND TROPICAL N ATLC WILL PROPAGATE SWD OVER MUCH OF TROPICAL N ATLC AREA THROUGH SUN. LARGE SWELL CURRENTLY AFFECTING ATLC PASSAGES NEAR PUERTO RICO AND LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO DECREASE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUE...INCREASING THE SEAS ONCE AGAIN. LOOKS LIKE A ROUGH PERIOD FOR BOATING OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXTENDS SW OVER CENTRAL GULF TO THE MEXICAN COAST S OF TAMPICO. FOR NOW THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT VERY STRONG...WITH HIGHEST WINDS NO MORE THAN 20 KT. MAIN PUSH BEHIND FRONT WILL BE OVER ERN ZONES AS LARGE MID/UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER GULF. AS A RESULT... FRONT WILL "BACKDOOR" ACROSS AREA AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM YUCATAN CHANNEL TO S TEXAS MON-WED. STRONG HIGH BUILDING SWD BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO IMPACT THE GULF WITH NE WINDS APPROACHING 30 KT EXPECTED OVER MIDDLE AND E GULF MON...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT ALL THE WAY TO NW GULF. AS IS THE CASE OVER CARIBBEAN AND ATLC...WINDS WILL DECREASE BY WED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. NWW3 BUILDS SEAS UP TO 13 FT OVER S PORTION OF MIDDLE/E GULF MON...WITH LARGE AREA OF 8-12 FT SEAS SHOWN OVER ENTIRE AREA N OF FRONT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY WED. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. $$ FORECASTER MOLLEDA