000 AGXX40 KNHC 221716 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE GFS HAS THE LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR 35N65W...ROTATE TO THE W THEN TO THE S. THIS BRINGS GALE FORCE WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE NE PORTION OF THE ATLC ZONE...PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON 31N. THE ETA MOVES THE LOW A LITTLE TO THE S BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE GFS...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND UKMET KEEPS THE LOW WELL THE N OF THE AREA. WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME SINCE THE GFS IS THE FURTHEREST S WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT STILL DOES NOT BRING GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 31N. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT STRONG WORDING WITH WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. THE LARGE SWELLS ARE STARTING TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...WITH BUOYS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST INDICATING 6 TO 7 FT SEAS. THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD COVERING NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLC ZONE BY SUN NIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE STRONG WIND OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE ATLC WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BY TUE AND WED AND THE SWELLS WILL VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW TONIGHT AND SAT THEN MOVE TO ALONG 27N AS VERY WEAK HIGH PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE WESTERN GULF W OF 95W WITH SLY 15 KT WINDS AND THE EASTERN GULF WILL HAVE 10 TO 15 KT NE WIND TONIGHT AND SAT. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH THE EASTERN GULF LATE MON AND TUE BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN AFFECT ON THE WIND. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THEN DISSIPATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC. THE LARGE SWELL FROM THE ATLC STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE BY LATE SUN INCREASING TO 9 FT BY TUE. 6 TO 7 FT SWELL MAY ALSO CREEP INTO THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. $$ FORECASTER DGS