000 AGXX40 KNHC 180656 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC CONDITIONS ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON T.S. JEANNE POSITION AND INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NW FROM N COAST OF HISPANIOLA THRU BAHAMA ISLANDS. SQUEEZE BETWEEN JEANNE AND REMNANTS OF IVAN WOULD SWING WIND AND SEAS FROM LIGHT WESTERLY N OF...AND STRONG EASTERLY S OF...25N. PRESENT FORECAST INCHES JEANNE IN NW TRACK WHILE IVAN DIFFUSES NE WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING TO SE FLORIDA. ALL MODELS AGREE ON TROUGH PICKING UP JEANNE AND LIFTING IT N-NE ...MAIN DIFFERENCES IS ON TIMING AND POSITION WHICH LEAVES OPEN ORIGINAL QUESTION OF WIND AND SEAS FORECAST FOR SW N ATLC. AT THIS POINT...AND BASED MAINLY ON JEANNE FORECAST STRENGTH AND POSITIONS FOR NEXT FIVE DAYS...FORECAST CALLS FOR MODERATE WIND IN NW CORNER SPREADING E WITH TROUGH WHILE JEANNE GIVES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND AND SEAS SE BAHAMAS AND SPREADS N ALONG 73W/74W. TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN MOVE OVER NE GULF OF MEXICO KEEPS MODERATE WIND LATE IN OUTLOOK PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BASIN REMAINS QUIET THROUGH PERIODS. CARIBBEAN NOW OUT OF BOUNDS FOR JEANNE EFFECTS. MOST OF AREA W OF 75W REMAINS WITH VERY LIGHT WIND AND SMOOTH SEAS. E OF 75W MODERATE WIND FEEDING INTO JEANNE DECREASE RAPIDLY AS TROPICAL STORM MOVES N ALONG 73W/74W LEAVING NO SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT TO ITS SOUTH. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY. ATLANTIC... T.S. WARNING S OF 25N BETWEEN 73W-75W...ZONE AMZ088. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES