000 AGXX40 KNHC 161713 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004 AMENDED TO INCLUDE VERIFICATION OF NWS/GFDL NWW3 MODELS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. IVAN HAS FINALLY MOVED INLAND AND ALL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FOR THE MIDDLE AND E GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN FACT THE LATEST GFS RUN DECREASES THE WINDS FASTER THEN PREVIOUS RUNS. CURRENTLY BUOYS IN THE NE GULF ARE INDICATING S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. AS IVAN CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NE IT DRAGS A TROUGH INTO THE GULF TONIGHT INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON FRI AND E OF THE AREA SAT. HOWEVER WINDS WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. HURRICANE JEANNE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. AS JEANNE MOVES BACK OVER THE ATLC IT STRENGTHENS BACK TO A HURRICANE FRI NIGHT. THE LATEST NHC TRACK MOVE JEANNE WNW INTO THE BAHAMAS THEN NW SUN AND MON AND OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL BE FOR THE ATLC E OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. DEPENDING ON THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII WITH THE 21Z ADVISORY...MAY BE ABLE TO DROP TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE MONA PASSAGE. OTHERWISE WINDS VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS DOWN TO 1 TO 2 FT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY. ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 22N BETWEEN 68W-73W...ZONE AMZ088. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. $$ FORECASTER DGS