000 AGXX40 KNHC 150557 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004 AMENDED TO INCLUDE VERIFICATION OF NWS/GFDL NWW3 MODELS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. HURRICANE IVAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING N THROUGH MID GULF OF MEXICO ZONE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING INTO NW AND E GULF ZONES. GULF OF MEXICO BUOY REPORTED 33 FT AT 00Z WHEN 99 NM FROM CENTER. TAFB ESTIMATING MAX SEAS 55 FT THROUGH LANDFALL... SO SEE NO REASON TO ADJUST ATTM. DENSE NETWORK OF BUOY AND CMAN STATIONS IN GULF PROVIDING GOOD ANALYSIS FOR 12 FT SEAS RADII N OF IVAN. WILL SUGGEST TO NHC EXTENDING 12 FT RADII TO 360 NM N SEMICIRCLE...WHICH IS TOO LATE N QUADRANT BUT THE CHANGE STILL IN ORDER FOR NW QUADRANT AS SEVERAL SHIPS RACING W OVER W GULF OF MEXICO. A COUPLE OF SHIPS ASSISTING IN PINPOINTING THE 12 FT SEAS RADII AT 300 OVER SE QUADRANT AND 240 OVER SW QUADRANT. BY 48 HOURS PLAN TO STILL HAVE SLY 25 KT N CENTRAL GULF WITH REMNANTS OF IVAN SWINGING A TROUGH SE INTO N CENTRAL GULF IN 72 HOURS. ALONG E FLORIDA COAST...EXPECTING WINDS SE AT 20 KT... WITH FLOW VEERING TO SSE IN 48 HOURS...THEN INCREASING TO 25 KT N OF 28N BUT FROM SW...THUS MINIMIZING E COAST EROSION. GULF OF MEXICO WINDS BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT BY SUNRISE SAT... BUT SW 20 KT CONTINUE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST WELL INTO SAT NIGHT. T.S. JEANNE IS MUCH SMALLER SYSTEM AND EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW JUST TO SW OF THE US AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...CROSSING PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY...THEN MOVE NW INTO SE ATLC ZONE WED NIGHT. JEANNE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE WED NIGHT. THE LARGE SWELLS FROM JEANNE WILL LIKELY SPREAD N AND NE ACROSS MOST OF THE SW ATLC WATERS TO NEAR BERMUDA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT AS IT TRACKS W 13 KT THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND THROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT AND FRI. TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLC WAS RELOCATED TODAY...AND IS QUITE CONVECTIVE WITHIN 180 NM OF 15N42W. WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE W ABOUT 10 KT INTO TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND INTO E CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT. WAVE FURTHER E ALONG 23W ALREADY HAS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED ON 10N. GFS DEVELOPS THIS INTO CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. HOPEFULLY WEAKNESS IN MID ATLC RIDGE ALONG 55W WILL STEER THIS SYSTEM...IF IT DEVELOPS...NW AND BE ONLY A PROBLEM IN OUR HIGH SEAS AREA. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W...ZONE AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W-89W...ZONE GMZ084. TS WARNING N OF 23N BETWEEN 83W AND 92W...ZONES GMZ084 GMZ086 AND GMZ080. $$ FORECASTER NELSON