000 AGXX40 KNHC 140546 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. HURRICANE IVAN BRUSHED W TIP CUBA AS IT MOVED INTO SE GULF OF MEXICO. INTERACTION WITH CUBA APPEARS TO HAVE HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON IVAN. FURTHER N AND INTO DAY 2...UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...BUT IVANS ANTICYCLONE IS SO IMPRESSIVE THAT HE MAY STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL N GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 60 HOURS. USING NHC GUIDANCE WILL SHIFT RADII HURCN/TS WINDS OUT OF CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF ZONES...WITH POSSIBLE TS WARNING CONDITIONS IN NW ZONE AS WELL. MAX SEAS WERE INCREASED TODAY TO 58 FT...AND NWW3 IS NOW CLOSE TO THAT HEIGHT IN 24 HOURS...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT ESTIMATE AT 24 HOURS THEN DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 50 FT JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND INTENSITY FORECAST WEAKENS IVAN. EXPECT MAX WIND ABOUT 25 KT ALONG NE FLORIDA COAST...BUT GUIDANCE HAS VEERED DIRECTION TO SSW...SO MAX SEAS 9 FT EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD...PERHAPS REDUCING BEACH EROSION AND RIP CURRENTS. TD11 FORECAST TO MOVE NE AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT ENCOUNTER ENOUGH SHEAR TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT TO ONLY A TS. TD11 WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN LATER THIS WEEK ALONG W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS MOST OF THE CYCLONES HAVE THE PAST MONTH OR SO. ELSEWHERE...GOING WITH GFS/NWW3 BUT ADJUSTING UP A TAD NEAR 2 TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH TROPICS FORECAST AREA. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W...ZONE AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE WARNING S OF 26N BETWEEN 84W-88W...TS WARNING S OF 27N BETWEEN 83W AND 89W...ZONES GMZ084 AND GMZ086. $$ FORECASTER NELSON