000 AGXX40 KNHC 050448 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT SUN SEPT 5 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 30N BUT HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING PAST 24 HRS (20M AT 500 MB). RIDGE AFFECTIVELY HOLDING HRCN FRANCES ON WNW TRACK. STORM FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL FL DURING NEXT 24 TO 36 HR. CIRCULATION AFFECTING MARINE AREA BETWEEN 70W AND 90W DAY 1. ELSEWHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAK AND WINDS LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLLY MODERATE. MID LEVEL RIDGE AFFECTIVELY BLOCKING WESTERLIES FROM INTERACTING WITH FRANCES DAY 2. STORM FORECAST TO BE OVER NE GULF HEADING NW. WIND AND SEA PROBLEMS BETWEEN 75W AND 92W. FORECAST HRCN IVAN APPROACHING 55W OVER TROPICAL ATLC DAY 2. OUTLOOK PERIOD... MRF MODEL SHOWS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING DAY 3 OVER THE E CENTRAL US ALLOWING FRANCES TO EXIT FINALLY NORTHWARD INTO GA/AL. WINDS AND SEAS STILL A PROBLEM DAY 3 BETWEEN 75W AND 93W N OF 24N. FORECAST HRCN IVAN APPROACHING SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM FOLLOWING IVAN OVER THE MID TROPICAL ATLC. REMAINDER OF AREA WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. DAY 4 FINDS MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE REBUILDING OVER ATLC. GFS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENING. HIGH CENTER OVER MID ATLC WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 24N80W. FORECAST HRCN IVAN MOVES INTO E CARIB. ANOTHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH 50W. WINDS AND SEAS STILL A PROBLEM WITH FORMER FRANCES BETWEEN 75W AND 90W N OF 25N DAY 4. MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO 594 HT SUPPORTING A MID OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 24N80W DAY 5. OLD FRANCES FINALLY EXITING OVER MID ATLC DAY 5 STILL CREATING MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS N OF 28N OVER ATLC W OF 75W. FORECAST HRCN IVAN MOVES INTO CENTRAL CARIB. GFS MOVES THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM WNW TO 55W. NLY FLOW OVER NW GULF DAY 5 FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATE W OF 95W..OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY. ATLANTIC... HURRICANE WARNING SW N ATLC...AMZ080...FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN W OF 77W. TROPICAL STORM WARNING SW N ATLC...AMZ080...FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. $$ FORECASTER RRG