000 AGXX40 KNHC 311826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC DISCUSSION ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES... HURRICANE FRANCES PASSING ABOUT 150 NM N OF PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS WED NIGHT...THEN MOVE NW ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH FRI. WIND RADII HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND WITH RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OUT TO 150 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. THIS HAS ALSO EXPANDED THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS TO 275 NM IN THE N AND 170 NM IN THE S. EXPECT THE 12 FT SEAS RADII TO EXPAND TO AT LEAST 300 NM IN THE N AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE. BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND SEAS HIGHER THAN 12 FT WILL SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE AREA FROM SE TO NW...WITH ONLY NE PORTION OF AREA ESCAPING THE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND SEAS. PRECEDING THE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE LONG PERIOD SWELL WHICH HAVE ARRIVED AT THE SE U.S. COAST BASED ON OBS FROM BUOYS WHICH SHOW 14-15 SECOND PERIODS FROM THE SE. THESE SWELL WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL IN HEIGHT UNTIL LATE WED OR WED NIGHT WHEN THE WAVEWATCH MODELS BRING HIGHER WAVES IN EXCESS OF 6 FT. BEHIND THE HURRICANE... CONDITIONS WILL TAKE ABOUT 24-30 HOURS TO IMPROVE TO MORE TYPICAL VALUES AS THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE IS QUITE LARGE IN SIZE. CARIBBEAN DISCUSSION ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES... SW WINDS 15-20 KT SKIRTING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD BE AS STRONG AS THE WINDS GET AS FRANCES TRACKS W-WNW. HAVE NOT RECEIVED OBS OF SEAS NEAR THE PASSAGES...BUT GUIDANCE FROM WAVE MODELS AND EXTENT OF SEAS RADII INDICATE SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT AFFECTING THOSE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT...SUBSIDING WED AS FRANCES MOVES AWAY FROM AREA. GULF OF MEXICO DISCUSSION ASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES... BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF WIND RADII FROM 1500 UTC ADVISORY... WESTERN EDGE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE RADIUS SHOULD SKIRT THE E GULF SAT AND EARLY SUN. THESE CONDITIONS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CURRENT OFFSHORE FORECAST. WILL TAKE A QUICK GLANCE AT NUMBERS FOR UPCOMING ADVISORY AND MAKE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY. ATLANTIC... HURRICANE WARNING TROPICAL N ATLC...AMZ087...N OF 19N W OF 62W. HURRICANE WARNING SW N ATLC...AMZ080...S OF 22N E OF 70W. TROPICAL STORM WARNING TROPICAL N ATLC...AMZ087...ELSEWHERE N OF 18N W OF 61W. TROPICAL STORM WARNING SW N ATLC...AMZ080...ELSEWHERE S OF 24N E OF 71W. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. $$ FORECASTER MOLLEDA