000 AGXX40 KNHC 171746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ITS BEEN A BUSY WEEK OR SO...BUT LOOKS LIKE SOME REST FOR THE WEARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TO BEGIN...TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANT OF TS EARL...ALONG ROUGHLY 82W AT 1700 UTC IS CONTINUING TO RACE WESTWARD AND IS LOOKING MORE DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON THAN IT HAS OVER THE LAST 3-4 DAYS. GIVEN THIS...MIGHT EVEN BE HARD PRESSED TO FIND 15 KT AT 6 FT OF SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WAVE TRANSIT PAST. AM PLANNING TO...LIGHTEN CONDITIONS...A CROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE W. SIMILARLY...IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM CENTER TRACKS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. FOR REMAINDER OF GULF OF MEXICO...PERSISTENT AND VARY WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST BEFORE PREDOMINATE EASTERLY WINDS MASK ANY FURTHER SIGN OF THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER N AND NE ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE PRODUCING SOME FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN MAINLY THE SW GULF THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO FADE TONIGHT INTO WED. REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLC INTO THE GULF THROUGH SUN IN THE OUTLOOK. SIMILARLY...RESIDUAL TROUGH IN THE NW PORTION OF SW N ATLC WATERS SHOULD FADE AWAY THROUGH WED LEAVING ONLY ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS...ALMOST SMOOTH SEAS...AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA THROUGH THE WEEK-END. ONLY AREA THAT COULD POSE SOME FORECAST PROBLEMS IS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DUE TO GFS INSISTENCE ON DEVELOPING UPSTREAM TROPICAL WAVE INTO A VIABLE CIRCULATION THAT APPROACHES THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SAT AND MOVES INTO THESE WATERS ON SUN...JUST STARTING TO IMPACT THE ISLANDS AND EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE SUN. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT UNLIKE LAST FEW BOUTS WITH MODEL CYCLOGENESIS...GFS DOES NOT HAVE A CONSENSUS AS BOTH NOGAPS AND UKMET SEEM LESS IMPRESSED WITH THIS WAVE. FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS... NONE. $$ FORECASTER HOLWEG