000 AGXX40 KNHC 291730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVEL... CUTOFF VORTEX PERSIST VICINITY N BAHAMAS WITH SLIGHT NE DRIFT EXTENDS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE WEAKNESS OVER SW N ATLC. SECOND VORTEX JUST OFF FLORIDA SW COAST ADDING TO RIDGE SEPARATION AS IT MOVES SW AWAY FROM PREVIOUS VORTEX. ON THE SURFACE... ATLC WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS NORTHWESTERNMOST CORNER OF FORECAST WATERS WILL WEAKEN RIDGE GRIP OVER AREA WHILE KEEPING WIND AND SEAS ON THE TAME SIDE. MOST STRONGER WIND AND HIGHER SEAS STAY N OF 31N. MODERATE E WIND S OF 25N WILL DECREASE ONCE TROPICAL WAVE EFFECT PASS AND LIGHT E TO SE WIND TO PREVAIL. GFS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NOGAPS...BUT BOTH DECREASE WIND AND SEAS BY END OF OTLK PERIOD. CARIBBEAN WIND SPEEDS FINALLY LOSING ITS RELENTLESSNESS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BACKS OFF E FORCED BY SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. EVEN SW CORNER OF BASIN ABATES TO 20 KT WITH SEAS DECREASING TO 8-9 FT...EVEN LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE SAT AND SUN. GFS TAKES THIS SOLUTION WHILE NOGAPS KEEP WINDS AT 20 KT. ENSEMBLE BRINGS WINDS DOWN SAT AND SUN BUT INCREASES THEM AGAIN BEYOND OTLK PERIOD. GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN QUIET AND SHALL REMAIN AS SUCH FOR ANOTHER FIVE DAY PERIOD. WARNINGS... NONE. $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES