000 AGXX40 KNHC 191752 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SHORTWAVE PULSE N OF GULF COAST TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING JUST OFFSHORE FROM LOUISIANA TO THE AL/FL BORDER. ELSEWHERE..MID LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS ALONG 27N THROUGH SUN MRNG. RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS W OF 90W TO TX AS NEXT FRONT PUSHES S. NEXT PULSE DROPS OVER CENTRAL GULF COAST STATE SUN NIGHT...THEN LIFTING OUT WITH RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD S OF 25N MON...OVER ENTIRE GULF TUE THROUGH THU. WINDS REMAIN BASICALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUN BEFORE BECOMING SLY UP TO 10 KT ON MON WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING UP TO 15 KT TUE AND REMAINDER OF PERIOD AS THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER AREA. SW N ATLC... NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORS ALONG 20N AS MAJOR SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES OVER NORTHERN AREA. TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF AREA SUN NIGHT. NOGAPS AND GFS AGREE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH AND POSITION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL MON...AT WHICH TIME BUILDING BACK W OVER THE BAHAMAS INTO THE SE GULF. BOTH ALSO AGREE WITH SOUTHWESTERLIES OF 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT ENTER AREA N OF 30N SUN...PUSHING S TO 29N AND E OF 66W MON AND OUT OF EARLY TUE MRNG. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WINDS OVER REMAINDER OF AREA THROUGH THU WITH SOUTHWESTERLIES N OF 26N AND EASTERLIES S OF 26N. CARIBBEAN... MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER SE BAHAMAS TRIGGERING ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS OVER CAICOS/TURKS AND NE OF HISPANIOLA. GFS...NOGAPS...AND THE ETA ALL INDICATE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH MON NIGHT. LOW OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH AND DRIFTS OVER CUBA TUE AND OVER W CARIB BY THU. SMALL AREA OF TRADES OF 25 KT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 11 FT IN CENTRAL CARIB THROUGH ENTIRE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...EASTERLIES PICK UP TO 20 KT S OF 16N MON THROUGH THU AS RIDGE BUILDS W. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 82W AND MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER YUCATAN GENERATING WIDESPREAD RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG E COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WARNINGS... NONE. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS