000 AGXX40 KNHC 041649 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EDT FRI JUN 04 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLC RIDGE ALONG 27N/28N REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK TROUGH WAS ANALYZED THIS MORNING OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SAT MORNING. A WEAK FRONT OVER THE SE U.S. WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST NW OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SUN THROUGH TUE ALONG 29N/30N. GFS INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE MAY SAG SOUTH ON WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE TOWARD THE NE PART OF THE ATLC WATERS. GULF OF MEXICO...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. OBSERVED SEAS WERE 2-4 FT THIS MORNING. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SUN THROUGH TUE WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10 TO 15 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF TEXAS. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST NWW3 SEAS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLC WATERS...Q-SCAT AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EASTERLY 15-20 KT WINDS ARE BLOWING OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...THE BUOY EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BEEN REPORTING WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE N PART OF THE AREA...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN...MORNING Q-SCAT DATA ONCE AGAIN DETECTED AN AREA STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SOLID AREA OF 25 KT WINDS WAS SEEN JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DECREASE IN THESE WINDS. BELIEVE THAT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT CHANGES VERY LITTLE. WILL LIKELY BACK OFF ON ANY WEAKENING TREND IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. NWW3 SEAS ARE ABOUT 2-3 FT TOO LOW ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W AROUND 20 KT...AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS. WARNINGS... NONE. $$ FORECASTER BROWN