000 AGXX40 KNHC 011705 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EDT TUE JUN 01 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... UPPER-LEVEL HIGH EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM S FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY FRONTAL SYSTEMS FROM ENTERING THE WATERS...AND MAINTAIN THE SFC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE MAIN FEATURE. THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 25N/26N TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 27N THU...THEN TO 29N/30N SAT AND SUN AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. AREA OF SW 15-20 KT WINDS SKIRTING THE WATERS N OF 30N WILL DECREASE THU-SUN AS THE RIDGE MOVES NEAR THAT AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONGER TRADES WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED S OF 23N WITH 20 KT WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THU AND LAST THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRENGTH OF TRADES WILL BE MODULATED BY TROPICAL WAVES THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA. FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 80W WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE ARE GENERALLY IN 20-25 KT RANGE BACK TO ABOUT 68W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD W WITH THE WAVE...AFFECTING THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION LATE TONIGHT/WED...THEN SUBSIDE THU AS THE WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM AREA. SEAS OF 8-11 FT AS FORECASTED BY THE WAVEWATCH MODEL LOOK GOOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS/SEAS OVER SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNTIL LATE FRI OR SAT WHEN GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. THIS NEXT WAVE CURRENTLY JUST W OF 40W IS IDENTIFIED QUITE WELL BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU...E CARIB FRI AND SAT...THEN CROSS 75W SUN. COMBINATION OF WAVE AND STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO N WILL ACT TO INCREASE TRADES TO 20 KT OR GREATER BEHIND THE WAVE...STARTING ACROSS EASTERN WATERS THU/FRI...THEN ENTERING CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE AXIS NEAR 27N WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU...THEN LOSE ITS IDENTITY LATE THU AND FRI AS THE DIFFUSE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVES OVER THE NE GULF. TROUGH DISSIPATES SAT WITH RIDGE REBUILDING NEAR 28N. TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER W CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU. MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE AND INCREASE E-SE WINDS TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE WAVE...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS THINKING AND WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER SW GULF ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IN WIND/SEAS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND E GULF THU/FRI IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH. WARNINGS... NONE. $$ FORECASTER MOLLEDA