000 AGXX40 KNHC 170548 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SAT APR 17 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N-ATLC...E ATLC RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO N COAST HISPANIOLA AT 06Z. NOTE THAT 00Z SHIP ZIRM6 AT 32N61W HAS SW WIND LEADING 00Z ANALYSIS TO HOLD FRONT BACK TO W...BUT BOTH Q-SCAT AND SSMI...AND DISTINCT CLOUD LINE INDICATE COLD FRONT ENTERS REGION AT 31N59W AT 00Z. EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE E ALONG 31N STALLING NEAR 31N56W AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT BROAD SOUTHERN BRANCH OF FRONT STILL QUASI-STATIONARY OVER HISPANIOLA. MON NIGHT E ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH REMNANTS OF FRONT W REACHING SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TUE AND AND STILL EVIDENT IN MODELS OVER CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED. FRONT SETTING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SO BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT INCREASE IN POPS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES OFF GEORGIA COAST EXPECTED TO SHIFT ALONG 33N TO NEAR 68W SUNRISE MON WHERE IT WILL LIE QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH SUNRISE TUE THEN SHIFT E AGAIN TO NEAR BERMUDA SUNRISE WED WITH REMNANTS OF FRONTAL TROUGH DRIFTING W BELOW RIDGE. SE OF RIDGE AND NW OF STALLING FRONT...N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT WITH NE SWELL TO THE NE OF BAHAMA CHAIN. EXPECT SOME NE SWELL TO SNEAK THROUGH BAHAMA CHAIN INTO STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH MAX SEAS NEAR 8 FT LATE SUN THROUGH MON. NWW3 ONLY BUILDING SEAS TO 10 FT TONIGHT. THIS IS UNDER DONE AS SHIPS REPORTING 10-11 FT WITH 15-20 KT AND SHIPS N OF 28N REPORTING 13 AND 14 FT...THUS I WILL BUMP UP SEAS A FOOT OR SO AS DONE YESTERDAY. OVER WATERS N OF 28N E OF STALLING FRONT TO 55W...GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SE-S 15-20 KT AND E SWELLS 8-11 FT THROUGH MON...THEN GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH WIND BECOMING SE 10 KT AND SEAS 6-7 FT IN E SWELL THROUGH WED. TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...WEAK N-S TROUGH ALONG 61W WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM 040 DEG TO 120 DEG AND SPREADING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH ISLANDS S OF 17N. SHIPS AND BUOYS REPORTING ELY 10 KT WINDS BUT SEAS 4-6 FT WITH E SWELL. WEAK TROUGH EXPECTED TO DRIFT W THOUGH E CARIBBEAN LOSING IDENTITY BY TUE. GRADIENT ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN A BIT AS FRONT STALLS JUST NW OF FORECAST AREA...AND E ATLC RIDGE BUILDS A LITTLE. ELY SWELL S OF THIS E ATLC RIDGE WILL MAKE INTO NE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING TO ELY 15-20 KT SEAS 6-8 FT. BY 24 HOURS SEAS INCREASE 7-9 FT...THEN DECREASE TO TO E 15 KT SEAS 6-8 FT MON THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN...BROAD...240 NM WIDE FRONTAL TROUGH WELL DEFINED ON NIGHT CHANNEL FROM N COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA. SSMI AND EARLY EVENING Q-SCAT PASS...AND THREE SHIPS INDICATE N-NE FLOW 20-25 KT W OF TROUGH TO 82W WITH NE 20 KT SEAS 6-8 FT IN WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL. EXPECT NE WINDS TO SPREAD W COVERING ENTIRE NE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS BY 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES OFF GEORGIA COAST DRIFTS SLOWLY E. NICE TO SEE NWW3 GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED SEAS PAST FEW RUNS AS IT WAS TOO LOW YESTERDAY. OVERALL EXPECT GRADIENT TO WEAKEN OVER W CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE BECOMING NE 10-15 KT BY WED...BUT GRADIENT TIGHTEN OVER E CARIBBEAN WITH SOME E SWELL TO 8 FT MAKING THROUGH LEEWARDS AND WINDWARDS EARLY IN WEEK. GULF OF MEXICO...RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS. C-MAN STATIONS IS FLORIDA STRAITS ALREADY REPORTING NE WINDS 15-20 KT AND SSMI INDICATES SAME E BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT NE -E 15-20 KT TO SPREAD W TODAY OVER WATERS S OF 24N E OF 92W WITH SEAS 7-9 FT WHEN BUCKING GULF STREAM. RETURN FLOW ALONG OVER NW GULF AT SUSTAINED 15 KT ATTM AND EXPECT INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BY TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TUE...THEN DECREASE WED OVER SE PORTION. WARNINGS...NONE. FORECASTER NELSON