000 AGXX40 KNHC 021933 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST TUE MAR 2 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N68W 1032 MB WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRI. THE HIGH WILL ONLY DRIFT ESE THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT E OF AREA FRI. HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 29N WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THU...THEN WEAKEN AND SLIDE TO THE SE ALONG 31N65W 27N80W FRI AND SAT AND FROM 26N65W TO S FLORIDA SUN. THE PERIOD OF PROLONGED 20-25 KT NE TO E WINDS S OF 25N W OF 75W AND 25-30 KT NE WINDS S OF 25N E OF 75W WILL WEAKEN SOME FRI THEN ABATE FURTHER SAT AND SUN NE-E NEAR THE 15-20 KT RANGE. LARGE RESIDUAL SWELLS ACROSS THE ATLC MAINLY E OF 75W WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI THEN BE CONFINED TO MAINLY S OF 23N BY SAT AND SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. GULF OF MEXICO... PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKEN OVER THE LAST 24 HRS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SE GULF WHERE SE WINDS ARE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND SE 10-15 KT OVER REMAINDER OF GULF AS SEEN IN BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE DATA FROM THIS MORNING. LINGERING SWELLS UP TO 8 FT ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOY 42003 IN THE E GULF AND ARE NOW DOWN TO 6-7 OVER REMAINDER OF GULF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT LIGHT TO MODERATE OVER THE SE GULF THROUGH WED...THEN INCREASE BEGINNING WED NIGHT OVER THE W AND CENTRAL PORTIONS AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER W TEXAS. WINDS WILL REACH THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THESE AREAS OF THE GULF BY THU. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST FRI MORNING...AND REACH A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE FRI...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT...AND WEAKEN FROM NEAR SW FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO N-NE FRI AND SAT AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT FRI AND SAT THEN ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN SOME SUN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S WITH LOW SEAS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SLOW MOVING STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL MAINTAIN STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA THEN SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH MOVING E DURING THE PERIOD. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED MARGINAL 30-35 KT GALE WINDS FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN. GFS 1200 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN ABOUT 36 HRS. SO WILL KEEP 30-35 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT AND MENTION 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THEREAFTER. NWW3 SEA HEIGHTS IN RANGE OF 11-16 FT WITH MAX OF 17 FT LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH FRI GIVEN THE STRENGTH...FETCH AND DURATION OF THESE WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SAT AND SUN. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS UP TO 11 FT IN NE AND E SWELL SLOWLY SUN. WARNINGS... SW CARIBBEAN AMZ084...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W TONIGHT AND WED. ...GALE WARNING EXPECTED FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W WED NIGHT. FORECASTER AGUIRRE