000 AGXX40 KNHC 281830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... AS OF 15 UTC...THE LOW PRES CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29N70W WITH AREA OF GALES NOW INTO THE ATLC WATERS. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN AT BUOYS 41002 AND 41010 PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND ARE A SUSTAINED 25 KT SEAS REMAIN 16-17 FT AT BOTH SITES....DOWN BY 3-5 FT FROM EARLIER VALUES. ALTHOUGH THE NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL ACCURATELY PREDICTED SEAS ABOVE 20 FT A COUPLE DAYS AGO....THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THAT MODEL...06 UTC...DID NOT QUITE PREDICT THE 20 FT SEAS AT BUOY 41009...INSTEAD A FCST OF 16 FT WAS NOTED. THE LOW WILL TRACK EWD AND MOVE SE OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING...AND WELL EAST OF THE OFFSHORE AREA TONIGHT. GALES INITIALLY N OF 28N E OF 70W THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT....MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUN TO NEAR 33N75W LATE SUN AND NEAR 33N70W MON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER AREA N OF 26N TONIGHT THROUGH MON...BUT REMAIN NE TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MON S OF 26N. NWW3 GENERATES LARGE SWELL FIELD WITH THIS LOW BRINGING SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FT RIGHT UP TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. SEAS HOWEVER WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 12 TO 18 FT OVER MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE AREA N OF 25N TONIGHT...10-15 FT BY LATE SUN AND 8-13 FT MON. LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND MOVE S TO PUERTO RICO BY SUN EVENING. CONDITIONS IN THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES WILL BECOME VERY ROUGH BY MON. WAVEWATCH IS FORECASTING SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT IN THESE AREAS. OUTLOOK...THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG 30N TUE THEN SETTLE SOUTH TO ALONG 28N/29N BY THU. WINDS S OF 25N WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE N OF 25N....ALTHOUGH SLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT FAR NW PORTION BY LATE THU. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SLIDE E INTO THE ATLC SUN AFTERNOON. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON LASTING INTO MON. BY TUE WINDS ABATE TO 15 TO LOCALLY 20 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY AND A FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY MON. NWW3 INCREASES SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW GULF LATE TONIGHT. AS IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THIS IS A LITTLE TOO LOW AND SLOW...GOING WITH FORECAST OF 7 TO 10 FT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...THEN DROP SEAS LATE MON AND TUE WITH DECREASING WINDS. OUTLOOK...AS IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GFS ONLY BRINGS FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST ON TUE...THEN LIFTS THE FRONT WELL N OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH RETURN SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ONCE AGAIN WED NIGHT AND THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM HISPANIOLA TO 12N83W THIS MORNING. FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING. A SHIP...CALL SIGN UNKNOWN...WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N82W AND REPORTED NNE WINDS OF 20 KT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SW N ATLC NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SUN AFTERNOON AND SPREADS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC BY LATE MON WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY LATE MON. STRONG WIND REGIME EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE GFS EVEN HINTING AT INTERMITTENT 35 KT BARBS TUE THROUGH THU. WILL WAIT FOR LATER RUNS TO MENTION POSSIBLE GALES IN THIS AREA...THOUGH IT MUST BE NOTED THAT EVEN THE ROBUST GFS HAS BEEN UNDERFORECASTING WINDS IN THIS AREA THIS WINTER. WITH SUCH A PERSISTENT WIND REGIME THE NWW3 CONTINUES FORECASTING SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT SW CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... AMZ080...GALE WARNING EARLY TONIGHT N OF 28N E OF 70W. FORECASTER COBB