000 AGXX40 KNHC 211748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO EXTREME S TEXAS. OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING HAVE DETECTED 15 TO 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY EARLY SUN ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 25N/26N. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS N OVER THE W GULF SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW OVER SW UNITED STATES. N OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SUN...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NE TO E 10-15 KT...HIGHEST AS YOU GO WEST...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2-3 FT E PART AND 4 TO 6 FT W PART. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE VARIABLE SE OF THE FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT E TO SE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. SEAS S OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT. WINDS BECOME SE-S AND INCREASE TO A STEADY 15 KT OVER MUCH OF AREA SUN NIGHT. LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE MIDDLE AND W GULF AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. WAVEWATCH APPEARS TOO SLOW IN BUILDING SEAS OVER THE AREA MON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WHICH IS DISCUSSED BELOW. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES JUST E OF THE OFFSHORE AREA WITH A RIDGE SW THROUGH 27N65W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUN. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING LIGHT WINDS OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME N PART OF THE AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT...30N65W TO S FLORIDA SUN...THEN BEGIN TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY SUN NIGHT OVER S PART OF AREA AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. MAIN AREA OF WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE E OF FRONT N OF 29N WHERE SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE EXTREME N PART. WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT OVER ENTIRE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE NW. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER N PART AND ALSO E OF 70W IN REMNANT SWELL FROM DEPARTING STORM N OF AREA. SEAS WILL DECREASE TO 5 FT OR LESS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NE PART SUN NIGHT AND MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TRADE WIND REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH MON. 20 KT WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AREA ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. SEAS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OVER TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AS LARGE NLY SWELLS IMPACT THIS REGION THROUGH SUN NIGHT... THEN DECREASE MON. OUTLOOK MON NIGHT-THU... 12Z LONGER-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL POINTING TO A COMPLEX AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC TUE AND WED. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING E ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND NRN MEXICO MON WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER TEXAS BY TUE...WITH THE SFC AND UPPER LOWS MOVING INTO S CENTRAL AND SE U.S. TUE AND WED. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SE U.S. WITH REDEVELOPMENT IN THE W ATLC WED. GFS CONTINUES TO BE INCONSISTENT IN WIND FORECAST OVER THE GULF/W ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW. HOWEVER...THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD STRONGER WINDS. S TO SW WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TUE AHEAD OF THE LOW. WAVEWATCH SEAS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED. THE 06Z GFS RUN INDICATED POSSIBLE GALES OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WED AND WED NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE 12Z BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY. WILL LIKELY MENTION 25 TO 30 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER MOST OF THE GULF. STRONGEST LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY END UP OCCURRING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED...AND THIS IS THE AREA AND TIME WHERE GALES REMAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS BEGUN TO BACK OFF ON GALE WINDS S OF 31N. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE THE HEADLINE OF POSSIBLE GALE FOR NW PART OF SW N ATLC WED...BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE HAVE TO BACK OFF ON THIS. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL SPLIT THE SW N ATLC ZONE THU. WINDS WILL BEGIN A SLOW W TO E DECREASE THU OVER THE GULF. WARNINGS... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED SW N ATLC...AMZ080...N OF 28N W OF 75W. FORECASTER BROWN