000 AGXX40 KNHC 160630 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST MON FEB 16 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO NEAR 27N92W PROVIDING A WINDSHIFT AND ENHANCED CAA FROM NW TO N ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE SEAS REMAIN IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE. N/NE WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WINDS INITIALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KT LATER TODAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING COLD AIR SURGE LATE TUE RESULTS IN INCREASING NLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT OVER MOST OF THE GULF E OF 95W TUE NIGHT. GFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ETA/NOGAPS SOLUTIONS. NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 9-10 FT IN AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE TUE NIGHT WITH THIS SECOND SURGE WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE. OUTLOOK...20 KT NLY WINDS CONTINUE WED OVER THE GULF E OF 90W SUBSIDING TO 10-15 KT OVER ALL AREAS THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THU NIGHT AND FRI ALLOWING 20 KT RETURN FLOW W OF 92W BY LATE FRI. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH 31N75W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS AT BUOY 41010 PICKING UP TO SUSTAINED 25 KT IN INCREASED CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ESE AND EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO 28N80W BY THIS EVENING AND FROM 29N65W TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 32N79W BY TUE AFTERNOON. NW 20-25 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO N 15-20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND NE 10-15 KT TONIGHT AND E/SE 10-15 KT TUE AND SLY 10-15 KT LATE TUE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NIGHT DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NW SECTIONS TUE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA AND EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO 22N78W BY LATE WED AND FROM 27N65W TO HISPANIOLA LATE THU. IN THE MEANTIME...GFS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE N OF THE AREA PIVOTS AROUND TO THE SW TO BRUSH THE EXTREME NRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WITH W/NWLY GALES OF 35-40 KT THU. HOWEVER THE GFS IS ALONE IN THIS SOLUTION AS THE ETA/NOGAPS ARE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH ONLY SUSTAINED 25 KT WINDS. FOR NOW WILL NOT BUY INTO THE EXTREME GFS SOLUTION AND WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS...BUT RESPECT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GFS VERSUS NOGAPS AND LEAN IN THE GFS DIRECTION AND FCST NW 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. BY FRI COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 22N65W TO HISPANIOLA WITH NW WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 10-15 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 20-25 KT TRADES. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WEAKENING BY LATE TUE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A 25-30 KT AREA OF FUNNELED ELY WINDS WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD PUSH AND EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS BY WED EVENING WITH NLY 20-25 KT WINDS NW OF THE FRONT. OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT TRADES WILL WEAKEN TO 15 KT OR SO. BY LATE THU A WEAKENED FRONT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 13N82W AND STALLS FRI...WITH NLY 20 KT WINDS CONTINUING N OF THE FRONT. TRADES REMAIN WEAK ELSEWHERE. WARNINGS... NONE. COBB