000 AGXX40 KNHC 140635 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... EVOLUTION OF THE GULF LOW/FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM LAST NIGHT...SIMILARLY EARLIER FORECAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP FAIRLY POTENT GULF LOW BY TONIGHT. WITH BOTH GFS AND ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POST FRONTAL 25 TO 30 KT WINDS BY SAT EVENING... CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE FCST. NWW3 BRINGS SEAS UP TO 12 FT IN POST FRONTAL GULF...WHICH CONTINUES TO FIT WELL WITH CURRENT FORECAST REASONING. FRONT CLEARS THE GULF SUN EVENING AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO RIDGE SE INTO THE AREA BY MON. ON TUE AND WED...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES SE OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WITH IT...BRINGS A SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALONG WITH A REINFORCING HIGH CENTER THAT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING NLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF TUE... SHIFTING E ON WED. THIS IS A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE FROM LAST NIGHT WHEN THE GFS INSISTED ON A LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SE GULF TUE...MOVING NE ACROSS FLORIDA LATE TUE AND WED. TONIGHTS GFS SOLN APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE AND WILL NOT DIVERGE FROM IT. SW N ATLC... WAITING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM TODAY THAT IS THE STARTING POINT FOR A 24 TO 36 HOUR LONG PERIOD OF 20 TO 30 KT SW WINDS IN THE NW CORNER OF THESE WATERS LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY MON BEFORE WINDS FINALLY SHIFT W TO NW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE LOW CENTER OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST AND VERY STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH CENTER... BELIEVE THAT GALES IN OUR WATERS NOT VERY LIKELY...EVEN IF SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK A BIT FURTHER S. TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL REMAIN N OF AREA AND THEREFORE HOLD THE GALES TO OUR N. ON WED...LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A GOOD OLD FASHION NORTHEASTER WILL BEGIN OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT USHERS THE REINFORCING HIGH INTO THE GULF WILL HELP TO SET OFF CYCLOGENESIS ON THE EAST COAST WITH DEVELOPING LOW DEEPENING RATHER RAPIDLY AND MOVING NE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLC COAST BY THE END OF WED. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE POTENT AT THE PRESENT TIME AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...CURRENT INCLINATION...GIVEN SHARPNESS OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP N OF THE AREA AND TRACK QUICKLY ENOUGH TO THE N...THAT GALES WILL NOT GET AN OPPORTUNITY TO BLEED INTO OUR WATERS. WARNINGS... NONE. HOLWEG