000 AGXX40 KNHC 030645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 AM EST TUE FEB 03 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 0000 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE GULF CONFIRMS BUOY REPORTS OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 93W. SEAS ARE IN THE 7 TO 8 FT RANGE TONIGHT...ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN NWW3 GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ABOUT 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE NW GULF THROUGH EARLY WED AS HIGH OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S. BUILDS E RESULTING IN VEERING...ROUGHLY 20 KT...WINDS FROM NLY EARLY TODAY BECOMING NE TO E TONIGHT AND E TO SE WED. RETURN SLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT STARTS IN EARNEST WED NIGHT AS NEXT LOW BEGINS TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST WITH CONDITIONS DECREASING LESS THAN 20 KT BY FRI MORNING AS THIS LOW PUSHES NE INTO THE SE AND MIDDLE ATLC COASTS. TRAILING HIGH PRES PUSHES INTO THE GULF FRI NIGHT WITH GFS INDICATING N WINDS OF 25 KT AND SEAS TO 11 FT BY SAT MORNING. FRONT PUSHES E TOWARD THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST ON SAT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER WINDS SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SAT. FRONT LOOKS TO BE PUSHING E OF THE GULF BY LATE SAT. SW N ATLC... BUOY 41010 INDICATING 25 KT AND SEAS OF 11 TO 12 FT TONIGHT WITH STATIONARY FRONT LYING JUST SW OF THE STATION AT 0300 UTC. LOW PRES EARLIER LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE HAS PUSHED N OF THE AREA AND APPEARS TO BE INLAND OVER S CAROLINA. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THIS LOW THROUGH TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DECREASE OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH SEAS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE AS ELY SWELL GENERATED FROM FAIRLY LARGE ATLC SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WORK IT'S WAY TOWARD THE COAST. BY WED AFTERNOON THE LOW CENTER IS WELL N OF THE AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT REACHING INTO THE AREA ALONG 31N72W TO 28N74W BEFORE WEAKENING. NOT MUCH OF A COLD AIR PUSH W OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX NE TO E 10 TO 15 KT WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS OVERNIGHT WED INTO THU. CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN ON THE INCREASE BY FRI MORNING AS NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHES THE NW PORTION OF THESE WATERS. AVN INDICATING SLY FLOW OF 20 TO MAYBE EVEN 25 KT BUT STRONGER WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN N OF THE AREA AS THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW IN BOTH GFS... ETA... AND NOGAPS TAKES IT OFFSHORE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF N CAROLINA N TOWARD THE TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA LATE FRI. FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT INTO THE AREA EARLY SAT WITH GFS INDICATING UP TO 30 KT IN SW WINDS...ALTHOUGH I AM NOT CONVINCED CONDITIONS WILL BE THIS STRONG IN THE SW FLOW. WILL GO WITH 25 KT E OF FRONT SAT. CARIBBEAN... EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. COLD FRONT APPROACHES NW CARIBBEAN SEA FRI NIGHT FINALLY PUSHING INTO THE AREA WITH NLY WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS TO 7 FT W OF THE FRONT ON SAT. .TROPICAL N ATLC... SWELL TO 8 FT REPORTED OVER THE NE WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT. BY THU...CENTRAL ATLC HIGH RIDGES S WITH INCREASING TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF THE AREA. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SWELL...TO 11 FT WITH WINDS REACHING SUSTAINED 20 KT THU. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SWELL TO 12 FT AND WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER WATERS N OF ROUGHLY 17N THU NIGHT AND FRI. NWW3 AND GFS INDICATING CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF TRADES WITH SEAS TO 14 FT AND WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ON SAT OVER AREA N OF 17N. NOT QUITE SURE CONDITIONS WILL REACH THAT LEVEL...BUT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TREND OF HIGHER WIND AND SEAS INTO THE WEEK-END. WARNINGS... NONE. FORECASTER HOLWEG