000
AGXX40 KNHC 281822
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
125 PM EST WED JAN 28 2004

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...COLD FRONT OVER SW N ATLC IS THE MAIN FEATURE 
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  COLD FRONT PASSED 
BERMUDA IN THE LAST 1-2 HOURS AND EXTENDS TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS 
AND CENTRAL CUBA.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL ON TRACK FOR 
GALES TO BEGIN SHORTLY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AND MOVE E OVER 
AREA N OF 29N E OF 75W TONIGHT AS LOW N OF AREA WINDING UP.  
RAISED WINDS TO 40 KT IN LATE AM UPDATE...AND PLAN ON GOING WITH 
30-40 KT OVER THE GALE AREA TONIGHT AS GFS 10-METER WIND PROG 
SHOWS 40 KT CONTOUR SKIRTING 31N.  OVERALL SYSTEM WILL MOVE 
RAPIDLY E AND BRING A QUICK END TO THE GALES W OF 65W BY THU 
MORNING.  ELSEWHERE NW OF FRONT WINDS IN 25-30 KT RANGE TONIGHT 
WILL ALSO RAPIDLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E 
FROM THE SE UNITED STATES.  RIDGE EXTENDS W-E ACROSS AREA THU AS 
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND DIFFUSE OVER SE PART OF AREA.  
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING DAY THU AND CONTINUES INTO FRI 
AS HIGH SHIFTS E OF AREA AND RIDGE HOLDS ON ALONG 26N.  SEAS 
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH EVEN AFTER THE WINDS DECREASE...WITH NWW3 
MODEL INDICATING MAX SEAS IN EXCESS OF 20 FT OVER FAR NE PART 
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU.  LARGE NW SWELL EASILY IN EXCESS OF 
10 FT WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF AREA INTO FRI.  

GULF OF MEXICO...WIND/SEAS APPEAR HAVE PEAKED OVER MUCH OF THE 
GULF EXCEPT FOR THE AREA NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA WHERE N WINDS ARE STILL IN 20-25 KT RANGE.  DECREASING 
TREND WILL TAKE OVER REST OF TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT AS SE U.S. 
HIGH PRES MOVES E OF AREA.  SLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE FAR WRN 
GULF WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT AS EARLY AS THU...WITH REST OF 
AREA EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT WINDS AFTER THU.  STRONG MID/UPPER 
LOW OVER THE SW U.S. WILL MOVE SE OVER NRN MEXICO FRI AND HELP 
TO DEVELOP A WEAK SFC LOW NEAR A FORMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER 
THE NW AND MIDDLE GULF.  SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO 
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS...WILL GO WITH GENERALLY NE 20 KT 
WINDS OVER NORTHERN THIRD OF GULF FRI...AND SLY WIND 10-15 KT 
ELSEWHERE.     

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...TAIL END OF ATLC FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.  FRONT WILL MAKE IT 
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY THU AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 
THERE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.  FRONT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE 
THU NIGHT.  N-NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WILL 
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH ELY WINDS 15 KT 
ELSEWHERE.  AREA OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST WILL REMAIN WITH 20 TO 
OCCASIONALLY 25 KT WINDS THROUGH FRI.  LARGE NLY SWELLS TO 12 
FT FROM ATLC SYSTEM WILL AFFECT N PART OF TROPICAL N ATLC AREA 
FRI. 

OUTLOOK FRI NIGHT-MON...MAIN CHANGE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD 
WILL BE TO TAKE OUT THE POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS FOR SW N ATLC 
SAT AS IT NOW APPEARS FROM ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT LOW OVER 
THE GULF FRI WILL REMAIN WEAK AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA IN CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW OVER W ATLC.  AT THE SAME 
TIME...NORTHERN LOW WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR N TO HAVE MUCH OF AN 
IMPACT OVER TPC AREA.  NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST 
LATE FRI NIGHT BECOME STATIONARY FROM 24N65W TO WEAK LOW NEAR NW 
BAHAMAS SUN AND MON.  WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 26N FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THEN SHIFT E 
OF AREA LATE SAT.  WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT 
EXCEED 25 KT...AND REMAIN 20-25 KT NEAR THE WEAK LOW OFF THE 
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST SUN AND MON.  

OVER REST OF AREA...NE WIND 20-25 KT OVER NE GULF SAT WILL 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT SUN AND MON AS YET ANOTHER FRONT 
ENTERS NW GULF MON.  CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WILL SEE VERY 
LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND WITH NLY SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER 
TROPICAL N ATLC.

WARNINGS...
GALE WARNING...SW N ATLC AMZ080 N OF 29N E OF 75W. 
  
FORECASTER MOLLEDA