000 AGXX40 KNHC 160545 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. POWERFUL COLD VORTEX OVER NEW ENGLAND ROTATING A MAJOR TROUGH AXIS RAPIDLY E OVER ATLC WATERS TONIGHT. TROUGH EXTENDS TO 23N. LARGE SURFACE LOW JUST N OF AREA HAS GALE CIRCULATION THAT COVERS HALF OF ATLC AND EXTENDS S TO 29N. WHOLE AREA MOVING SLOWLY E. RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER W GULF TO 20 KT AS PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS. REMAINDER OF AREA UNDER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN DAY 2 WITH SPLIT FLOW SETTING UP OVER CONTINENT. OPEN RIDGE IN SOUTHERN BRANCH MOVING OVER GULF WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW BACK OVER MEXICO. GALE AREA CONTINUES OVER ATLC N OF 29N E OF 63W. AREA SHIFTING SLOWLY E DAY 2. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS INCREASING SLY FLOW OVER GULF. REMAINDER OF AREA UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES DAY 3 WITH VERY COLD NORTHERN BRANCH CUT OFF FROM REACHING SOUTHERN LATITUDES. UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN BRANCH MOVES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF. MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES E OVER SE DAY 3 WITH STRONG SW TO W WINDS DEVELOPING. AVN HINTS AT GALE CONDITION OVER ATLC N OF 29N W OF 72W AS LOW DEEPENS. MRF MODEL SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER PLAINS OPENING UP DAY 4 AS IT HEADS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY. MODEL HINTS AT TROUGH POSSIBLY TAPPING COLD AIR FROM NORTHERN BRANCH. DAY 4 FINDS LOW PRESSURE OVER ATLC MOVING ENE WITH POSSIBLE GALE AREA AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH N OF 29N E OF 65W. COLD FRONT EXTENDS BACK ACROSS NORTHERN GULF WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. CARIBBEAN UNDER WEAK GRADIENT. STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR OVER SE CANADA DAY 5 TRYING TO SET UP MAJOR TROUGH OVER EASTERN US. ONLY SAVING FACTOR IS SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES AND SOUTHERN BRANCH UNDER-CUTTING TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO ATLC DAY 5 WITH WINDS 25 TO 30 KT AHEAD OF FRONT N OF 26N. WINDS DECREASE W OF FRONT BUT REMAIN GUSTY FROM W AND NW 20 KT. GULF AND CARIBBEAN UNDER WEAK CONTINENTAL RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS. WARNINGS... GALE WARNING ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN E OF 70W AMZ080. FORECASTER RRG